by Indy! on October 17, 2024 10:48 am
Third time is the charm?
by HatetheSwamp on October 16, 2024 9:44 am
That's not how Polymarket works.
Oh peebs, sometimes your ignorance is charming despite all your other ugly attributes. Let's go to one of your favorite sources for a little more info on PolyMAGAt...
Polymarket, one of the leading political betting markets that is based offshore and partially funded by Peter Thiel...
Who is Peter Thiel?
Thiel is a self-described conservative libertarian.[91] Since the late 2010s, he has espoused support for national conservatism,[92] and criticized economically liberal attitudes towards free trade[93] and big tech.[92]
In 1995, Thiel and David O. Sacks published The Diversity Myth, a book that criticized political correctness and multiculturalism in higher education. The following year, writing for Stanford Magazine, they argued against affirmative action in the United States, saying that it had hurt, not helped, the "disadvantaged" and had led to increased segregation at Stanford University in the name of "diversity".[94]
IOW - He's not one of the Kock Bros as Indy predicted on day 1 - but he might as well be. Okay - back to PolyMAGAt (picking up where we left off)...
...gave Trump about a 60 percent chance of winning the election as of Wednesday, while Harris had a 40 percent chance of victory. Betting odds have fluctuated throughout the election and may change based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.
But one trader has appeared to be influencing the market by betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory.
Wait... ONE PERSON - ON THEIR OWN can change the odds on PolyMAGAt? 😳 You mean peebs has been quoting odds that are being manipulated by ONE SINGLE PERSON?
Yes.
As of late Tuesday, the trader, only known as Fredi9999, has purchased more than 15 million shares, valued at $8.7 million, betting that Trump would win the election.
They have also purchased more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote, and nearly 1.5 million shares that Trump would carry Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that is viewed as the most likely tipping-point state this cycle. All told, Fredi9999's position is valued at more than $14 million on the platform.
SomeONE - ONE PERSON - is “betting” a SHIT TON of cash to make it look like Trump is going to win.
Who this trader may be, as well as why they may be betting so much on the presidential race, remains unknown. Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market largely out of the reach of U.S. regulators, and its users are anonymous. Fredi9999's profile provides few details about their identity, just that they joined the platform in June 2024. They've been adding to their positions, in roughly $500 bets, as recently as Wednesday morning.
Laura Beers, a professor of history and expert on political betting at American University, told Newsweek there are numerous reasons an anonymous trader would be betting so much money on a Trump victory. For instance, there is historical precedent for using the idea of betting on politics "as a hedge."
So what we have is ONE PERSON spending a lot of money for their own personal gain and it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE ACTUAL ODDS OF TRUMP WINNING! Just as Indy has been saying ever since PB brought up this stupid PolyMAGAt scam.
In fact, there is more than one reason why someone (or a group) could be using PolyMAGAt to make it look like Trump is winning...
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission has previously warned about the potential for manipulation in betting markets, which were illegal in the U.S. until recently.
The trader could also be trying to influence the election by shifting the betting odds in Trump's favor, she said.
"It's unclear whether that would help Trump by making him looking successful, or energize Kamala supporters who are afraid that the markets are showing her as an underdog," she said.
The trader's large bets have shifted the market toward Trump, Rajiv Sethi, a professor of economics, wrote in a recent Substack post. On Oct. 7, the volume of contracts being traded on Polymarket caused a spike in Trump's chances of winning, based no apparent news event.
So - BASED ON ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OTHER THAN INCREASED BETTING - Trump's odds went up. Again, just as Indy has been saying this entire time.
More?
He continued, "Alternatively, it could be someone who wants to have a price impact and make Trump appear to have better prospects than the market would otherwise suggest, in the expectation that this will boost morale and keep donations and volunteer effort flowing."
These two scenarios, he warned, would compromise the integrity of Polymarket's forecasting accuracy.
So - in the end - Indy was right, PB’s favorite betting market is nothing more than another weak ass GOP con to rip off it’s own party members and make it look like Trump is winning when he is so obviously sinking like the Titanic.
by HatetheSwamp on October 16, 2024 9:44 am
That's not how Polymarket works.
Oh peebs, sometimes your ignorance is charming despite all your other ugly attributes. Let's go to one of your favorite sources for a little more info on PolyMAGAt...
Polymarket, one of the leading political betting markets that is based offshore and partially funded by Peter Thiel...
Who is Peter Thiel?
Thiel is a self-described conservative libertarian.[91] Since the late 2010s, he has espoused support for national conservatism,[92] and criticized economically liberal attitudes towards free trade[93] and big tech.[92]
In 1995, Thiel and David O. Sacks published The Diversity Myth, a book that criticized political correctness and multiculturalism in higher education. The following year, writing for Stanford Magazine, they argued against affirmative action in the United States, saying that it had hurt, not helped, the "disadvantaged" and had led to increased segregation at Stanford University in the name of "diversity".[94]
IOW - He's not one of the Kock Bros as Indy predicted on day 1 - but he might as well be. Okay - back to PolyMAGAt (picking up where we left off)...
...gave Trump about a 60 percent chance of winning the election as of Wednesday, while Harris had a 40 percent chance of victory. Betting odds have fluctuated throughout the election and may change based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.
But one trader has appeared to be influencing the market by betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory.
Wait... ONE PERSON - ON THEIR OWN can change the odds on PolyMAGAt? 😳 You mean peebs has been quoting odds that are being manipulated by ONE SINGLE PERSON?
Yes.
As of late Tuesday, the trader, only known as Fredi9999, has purchased more than 15 million shares, valued at $8.7 million, betting that Trump would win the election.
They have also purchased more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote, and nearly 1.5 million shares that Trump would carry Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that is viewed as the most likely tipping-point state this cycle. All told, Fredi9999's position is valued at more than $14 million on the platform.
SomeONE - ONE PERSON - is “betting” a SHIT TON of cash to make it look like Trump is going to win.
Who this trader may be, as well as why they may be betting so much on the presidential race, remains unknown. Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market largely out of the reach of U.S. regulators, and its users are anonymous. Fredi9999's profile provides few details about their identity, just that they joined the platform in June 2024. They've been adding to their positions, in roughly $500 bets, as recently as Wednesday morning.
Laura Beers, a professor of history and expert on political betting at American University, told Newsweek there are numerous reasons an anonymous trader would be betting so much money on a Trump victory. For instance, there is historical precedent for using the idea of betting on politics "as a hedge."
So what we have is ONE PERSON spending a lot of money for their own personal gain and it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE ACTUAL ODDS OF TRUMP WINNING! Just as Indy has been saying ever since PB brought up this stupid PolyMAGAt scam.
In fact, there is more than one reason why someone (or a group) could be using PolyMAGAt to make it look like Trump is winning...
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission has previously warned about the potential for manipulation in betting markets, which were illegal in the U.S. until recently.
The trader could also be trying to influence the election by shifting the betting odds in Trump's favor, she said.
"It's unclear whether that would help Trump by making him looking successful, or energize Kamala supporters who are afraid that the markets are showing her as an underdog," she said.
The trader's large bets have shifted the market toward Trump, Rajiv Sethi, a professor of economics, wrote in a recent Substack post. On Oct. 7, the volume of contracts being traded on Polymarket caused a spike in Trump's chances of winning, based no apparent news event.
So - BASED ON ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OTHER THAN INCREASED BETTING - Trump's odds went up. Again, just as Indy has been saying this entire time.
More?
He continued, "Alternatively, it could be someone who wants to have a price impact and make Trump appear to have better prospects than the market would otherwise suggest, in the expectation that this will boost morale and keep donations and volunteer effort flowing."
These two scenarios, he warned, would compromise the integrity of Polymarket's forecasting accuracy.
So - in the end - Indy was right, PB’s favorite betting market is nothing more than another weak ass GOP con to rip off it’s own party members and make it look like Trump is winning when he is so obviously sinking like the Titanic.
by Indy! on October 17, 2024 10:48 am
Nope - you got me. I give up.
by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2024 10:51 am
Check out the whole RCP betting site. It's killing Kammy since yesterday.
by Curt_Anderson on October 17, 2024 11:29 am
Indy,
in your first italicized sentence in which you mention Peter Thiel, you attempted to close it thusly: [i/i] instead of [/i] (but between angle brackets) If fixed it in your opening post.
by Indy! on October 17, 2024 1:05 pm
Too much work to style text, Curt. You're living in the mid-1990s on this board. But thanks for fixing it and feel free to toss the other two posts. Peebs is not going to read them anyway because it will destroy his belief in PolyMAGAt.
And if RCP has a betting site - it works the same way, PB... ONE PERSON (read: Leon Musk) can spend a ton of money to make it look like Trump's winning or Kamala's winning or Jill Stein is winning... whatever. It's a wingnut scam, exactly as I said the first time you brought this nonsense up.
