By ROB3RT July 2, 2024 9:14 pm Category: Politics (5.0 from 1 vote) Rules of the Post Write A New Article How To Post Here Rate this article (5=best, 0=poor)

Probably the best analysis I've heard about this double-hater election is if it's a referendum on Biden, Trump wins. And if it's a referendum on Trump, Biden wins. The debate ensures that the election -- if Biden stays in the race -- will be a referendum on him. And that's bad news for anybody who values democracy.

Biden has to go. All the Dems know it. Those who are purportedly backing him are stalling. They're betting the polls will show Biden losing support, and the polls will persuade him to step aside. They're probably right. Why knife the guy? Let the data do the dirty work. Also, they don't want the chaos that would ensue if he resigns and there are 15 people fighting for the nomination. They want a process that will keep the drama to a minimum.

Kamala Harris will probably be the nominee. My guess is when Biden pulls out of the race -- or even resigns the presidency -- he'll urge the party to rally around Harris. As the first black vice president, it'll be too messy trying to take the nomination from her. Trump and the Republicans are trying to call Democrats the chaos party, and the best way to confirm that is with a chaotic convention.

But the main reason Kamala will get the nomination is because the Biden-Harris campaign has $240 million cash on hand, and -- if what I've read is correct -- the only candidates who can legally spend that money are named either Biden or Harris. If Gavin Newsom wins a brokered convention, he won't be able to touch a dime of the Biden-Harris war chest. He'll have to spend the entire month of September fundraising. You can't win an election if you don't have time to campaign. I just don't see any way of avoiding Harris.

She's not my first choice. She's not even in the top ten. She was a mediocre candidate in 2019. But she's the only one who can save democracy now.

I've always been suspicious of unity tickets, but I think this might be the time to play the card. Dems say the fate of Democracy rests with this election. A few sane Republicans say the same. Why not say it with an exclamation mark and try to pick up some votes from the middle. I'd recommend Harris pick a never-Trump Republican as her running mate. Pick Mitt Romney, put him in charge of an inflation task force. Might put Utah in play, or get a lot of Mormons in Arizona and Nevada to pull the donkey lever. That could make the difference in a couple of swing states.

If not Romney... Lisa Murkowski? Adam Kinzinger? Chris Christie? Liz Cheney? There are some interesting choices.

Biden has been a successful president. A decent man. It'll be a shame to see him go, but the time has arrived. Even if he doesn't realize it now, he will soon. I suspect the Dems are working on a transition plan behind the scenes, but it'll be a week or two before they're ready for an announcement.

Comments Start Below

by Curt_Anderson on July 2, 2024 10:04 pm Robert (our old friend I presume. Welcome regardless), Thanks for a politically sophisticated analysis and information. I heard the same thing about the Biden-Harris money. Besides Harris being the top of the ticket nominee, she could be the running mate of whoever the convention selects. Alternatively, why can’t Biden run ads for whoever—without coordinating. I have no problem with Harris btw. I just would like to see a convention with competition and drama. by Curt_Anderson on July 2, 2024 10:30 pm There would be no shame if Governor Shapiro, Governor Moore, Governor Whitmer, Sen. Brown, etc. named Kamala Harris as their veep just to get their hands on that $240 million. Robert F Kennedy, Jr.‘s running mate Nicole Shanahan’s only qualification is that she is the wealthy ex of google cofounder Sergei Brim. by ROB3RT on July 2, 2024 10:33 pm Curt wrote: Robert (our old friend I presume. Welcome regardless) You have a better memory than some presidential candidates. Besides Harris being the top of the ticket nominee, she could be the running mate of whoever the convention selects. Harris can respond by saying that under no circumstances would she accept the vice presidential nomination. Then what does Gavin Newsom do? I would approve of that sort of power play, since it would indicate that Harris has more talent and strength that I would have surmised. Alternatively, why can’t Biden run ads for whoever—without coordinating. I don't know. My guess is it's an unsettled question. But I'm sure Trump's lawyers can find a few friendly Supreme Court justices who will order an injunction preventing anyone from spending the money -- before election day. I just would like to see a convention with competition and drama. Trump is already trying to say that Democrats are the party of chaos. Drama is the last thing the Democrats need right now. Drama at conventions rarely leads to positive outcomes. by ROB3RT on July 2, 2024 10:40 pm Curt wrote: There would be no shame if Governor Shapiro, Governor Moore, Governor Whitmer, Sen. Brown, etc. named Kamala Harris as their veep just to get their hands on that $240 million. Which is why Harris should play hardball and say that she will not serve as vice president. If Democrats want that $240 million, they only get it by nominating her. Otherwise, Gavin and friends are broke and S--- outta luck. I'm not saying I like or want Harris. But she's in the driver's seat. Most of the party leaders are going to pause before denying the first black female vice president the nomination. The money seals the deal. by Curt_Anderson on July 2, 2024 11:28 pm Good to hear from you Robert! If you don't mind sharing, how is your daughter doing? She must be about the same age as my son who is a cop in Las Vegas. He graduated from Western Oregon. Anyway, I hope all is well with you and the family. At the link below I wrote how it's time for a contested convention. It would be like a consequential reality TV show. Conventions don't always end badly. The most infamous and acrimonious convention was Chicago in 1968. That was in the wake of two assassinations including that of the Democratic front-runner, RFK, and Vietnam war protests. But even with all that, HHH lost to Nixon in a close one. Sure, Harris could play hardball, but she'd become a pariah if she loses to Trump. If she lost the nomination in a contested convention, she could demonstrate that she is a good Democrat and a believer in democracy which is the Biden-Harris raison d'etre. selectsmart.com by Indy! on July 3, 2024 12:58 am They already ran Kamala up the flagpole a year or so back and nobody saluted. She’s dead in the water. Biden has a better chance of winning imho. And the mixed ticket? That’s a fantasy of insiders. They way I remember it, Robert was a paid shill for Hillary who bailed as soon as Trump beat her like a rug. The Ds must have himon the prowl again checking the public’s temperature. by HatetheSwamp on July 3, 2024 6:43 am Good post, Rob3rt. If the Dems don't keep Joe, it'll have to be Kammy, though there are dozens of Dems who'd be a better candidate. Curt, Did your Holy Trinity or po's metaphorical Rachel show the clip, immediately after the debate, of Kammy saying that Joe got off to a slow start but did well by the end? Imagine the RNC running an ad with that clip over and over and over. It's moderate and independent common sense voters who will settle this election. I can't see them liking Kammy. The Dems lost this when they didn't sit Joe down a year ago and tell him thanks, that he was an amazing transitional president and now it's time for America to claim the benefit of his historic leadership. I despise Trump. I thought he was horrendous in the debate. But, because he was up against a "dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool, no one noticed. by Indy! on July 3, 2024 11:47 am I agree with that in the most part, but they don't have to run Kamala. The problem is they will (if they find the balls to tell Joe it's time to retire). This is another reason to give up on the Ds - even when there is a clear path to the solution - they overthink it and fuck it up anyway. Because they are complicit - they are working against themselves half the time to please their bosses (who are the same bosses for the Rs). by ROB3RT on July 3, 2024 7:31 pm The family is doing well, Curt. My older son is excelling in one of your favorite pastimes, running cross-country and track. My guess is if Biden gives up the nomination, he'll also resign the presidency. If Harris is the incumbent, there won't be a contested convention. And even if Biden doesn't resign, I think there's going to be a strong urge to rally around a nominee well-before the convention. by Indy! on July 4, 2024 9:53 am No way Biden steps down. See that? Even the paid insiders don't know how politics works. by Ponderer on July 4, 2024 11:13 am Donna here... Welcome back, Robert. Btw Curt - could you please give me a new password for my handle "Donna"? I couldn't have said it better myself, Robert. Every word. Right after the debate I agreed with Indy that Biden will never step down, but he's under enormous pressure now to do so. Post-debate polling is showing that he took a hit - a 3-pt hit in the NYTimes/Siena poll. Even before the debate, Biden was in trouble. The most significant stat is one I read about, I think at 538, a few days ago which cited that on July 2, 2020, Biden had a 9.3 pt polling advantage over Trump. Today, Trump has a 2.7 pt polling advantage. That's a negative swing of 12 points. And while Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, he only won by a relative handful of votes in a few swing states. So yeah, I think we need to really around Kamala now. by Ponderer on July 4, 2024 11:33 am Ponderer here this time. Hey Robert!!! Welcome back! Great to get some new/old blood back here. I agree with Donna about agreeing with everything you said also. "They already ran Kamala up the flagpole a year or so back and nobody saluted." -Indy! A year or so back is ancient history, the rate things are evolving lately. I think that for current needs, she's the the best one for the task. She'll certainly get more mainstream Dem votes than anyone else right now and she'll be seen as a tremendous improvement over Biden for moderates and independents. She's got the administrative experience now, and she got the whole Woman of Color thing going for her. Boy, would an election between her and Trump be a contest of polar opposites or what? If everyone here recalls, Donna and I both called her as Biden's most likely pick for VP right from the git-go. I think that a lot of the same boxes that she checked will get checked again and then some if they're actually going to replace Biden with someone. I think that she'd be the least difficult to stick into that position. I could even imagine former/current Trump supporters like Hate (pb) and olde dude here seeing their way clear to voting for her to keep Trump from ending the American Experiment in a blaze of authoritarian fascism. by ROB3RT on July 4, 2024 12:02 pm Yes, the polling is troubling. I think Biden has gotten more done to help this country than any president of my lifetime. I would hate to push him aside, but the debate showed he can't even advocate for his own administration. It's only going to get worse. But I do understand and agree with many of the concerns others have expressed about Harris. As a presidential candidate or nominee, she would get all of the blame for what has gone wrong the last four years and none of the credit for what's gone right. I have doubts she's nimble enough to push back and advocate for herself. Other the other hand, she performed well in the post-debate interviews, so maybe I'm underestimating her. Harris will get blamed for immigration (she should push back hard that she would support the bipartisan Senate bill that Trump killed) and inflation. And inflation is the killer. She needs a good response, which is sort of why I suggested she consider a Republican for the VP, to reassure voters who are more worried about the economy than democracy. Maybe there's somebody else who could help, or she could announce an economic team. I don't know. Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary and former Democratic Rhode Island governor might help. Either way, it's going to be a big hurdle for Harris to overcome. Plus Harris is a woman, and like it or not sexism will probably lose her some votes, so adding Raimondo has some downside. I think most women who care about abortion were already going to vote for the Democratic candidate. That said, I'd be willing to accept these risks because it's better to have a candidate who can start campaigning in July with $240 million and a unified party behind her than wait for a late August potential bloodbath. We don't need a divided party coming out of the convention, or one that's broke. We already had trouble with black and minority voters. I'm not sure Harris is the answer, but I suspect pushing her aside would cause a lot of trouble for whomever the Democrats nominated. Plus Harris has been vetted in a national campaign. Everyone thought DeSantis was a giant-killer on paper. Then the campaign exposed all his flaws. I'm not sure I want to take a risk on a little-known governor who has never been in the national spotlight. No great choices. You have to weigh a lot of factors. Harris may not have the most potential upside, but she probably poses the least risk. by Curt_Anderson on July 4, 2024 12:32 pm Donna, Ponderer, To get a new password use the "Help" button at the top of this page, or use the link below. I don't have your email address, so you'll need to tell me that privately. Naturally, I cannot even set a temporary password and then announce it publicly here in this forum. BTW, I have a full social calendar today, so it may take a day for me to respond. Alternatively, you could just sign-up again under a new moniker. Back to the topic at hand. The NY Times is reporting that Trump is being unusually quiet about Biden. He wants Biden as his opponent. That says a lot. Also the RNC has recently taken to beating up on Harris, that's also instructive. At the parade this morning as the RFK Jr. float passed by one of my friends (a South African) lamented that we don't have a viable third party. I remarked that since we don't form coalition governments that third parties can only make most people unhappy. If 25% of voters choose one of the two liberal candidates and another 35% chooses another similar liberal candidate, and the 40% choose the conservative candidate, the conservative wins. 60% are stuck with the candidate they like the least. I added if we didn't have the primary system and went back to the old days of contested conventions, RFK Jr. who started out as a Democrat running for president, might be a viable alternative given what's happening with Biden. At the very least he'd have some influence and say about the party platform. Islander would remind us that ranked choice voting would also address that issue. selectsmart.com by HatetheSwamp on July 4, 2024 12:41 pm Yeah, gang, pb thinks that Joe can't win... just based on the dementia. As you know, both of my parents died with dementia in recent years. Two things are true about dementia that apply. People with dementia have good and bad days. My guess is that the day of the debate was a bad day for Joe. He may not have a day as bad as that for a while. Also, people with dementia inevitably decline. Victor Davis Hanson suggested a couple of months ago that Joe's now declining exponentially. He seems to be. So,... the rigors of a presidential campaign, especially one in which he's trailing by so much with so little time, would require physical, emotional and mental stamina that Joe will not be able to muster. Most on the right are slobbering at the prospect of Kammy as Trump's opponent but I'm not so sure. by HatetheSwamp on July 4, 2024 12:57 pm Back to the topic at hand. The NY Times is reporting that Trump is being unusually quiet about Biden. He wants Biden as his opponent. That says a lot. Also the RNC has recently taken to beating up on Harris, that's also instructive. As you know, Curt, on the right, they're saying that Trump has been unusually "disciplined" in recent months. Go back and watch a few minutes of the debate. In the moment, when Trump could have lambasted Joe for his 90 minute brainfart, he was remarkably docile, even compassionate. Think of him at that debate four freakin friggin EFFINyears ago. As far as the RNC "recently" beating up on Kammy? Recently, as in starting the day Joe selected her. But, yeah... Who wouldn't want the "dithering and diminished" "feckless dementia-ridden piece of crap" as their opponent? Remember. Nate Silver gave the Orange Turd a 66% chance of winning before the debate. by ROB3RT on July 4, 2024 1:57 pm Are will still discussing whether Biden should or will step aside? I don't think Biden can win the general election, and that's because he can't campaign effectively. One week since the worst day of his political career, and he should be out campaigning vigorously, going on 60 Minutes, holding multiple events, trying to prove his debate performance was an anomaly. But instead, he's still hardly campaigning, just doing a couple of events with teleprompters. That's the tell for me. He's not reassuring anyone. The kind words of support you hear from many Democratic leaders is just a way to give Biden room to navigate through the five stages of grief towards the only possible solution. He has to drop out of the race, maybe resign the presidency. He's not going to be pushed. He has to come to the conclusion that it's the best and only path. And I think he'll get there, probably within the next two weeks as more polls are published. For my money, the best political analyst we've got is Ron Brownstein. He's written several good articles in the Atlantic the past week, though you may need a subscription to access them. He also had a pretty heated back-and-forth with James Carville on the Politics War Room podcast today. I'd recommend a listen. Bottom line is Carville believes there should be a selection process for the nominee at or before the convention, but Brownstein was doubtful that anyone has the stature to take on Harris, or that the would try. youtube.com by Curt_Anderson on July 4, 2024 2:12 pm In today's NY Times, the columnists each individually makes a case for six or so candidates mentioned as a possible Democratic nominee. I thought the cases for Shapiro and Wes Moore were particularly good. Maybe it will be Harris. I think she's be perceived as a more formidable candidate if she competed on some level against the other names mentioned, rather than Biden simply anointing her. by HatetheSwamp on July 4, 2024 2:26 pm Kammy gets the, what?, $250,000,000 remaining in Joe's campaign chest. No other Dem would, as I understand campaign laws. I've said before that Shapiro is very impressive. He'll win Pennsylvania, for sure. by Indy! on July 4, 2024 2:42 pm Funny watching you guys talk yourself into Kamala. She's a lightweight. Couldn't even make it to the primaries when she ran and - imho - she is seen in an even dimmer light now after 3+ years of not doing much as veep. Anyone who thinks she is viable should spend a little time on progressive twitter - she's the butt of jokes (like Li'l Kamala 🙂). Pondy's post... Let's explore those ideas... What has Kamala done in the last year to polish up her image? Ahh... nothing. You're operating from the classic D position of not wanting to lose... Biden needs to go, Kamala is the obvious option... everyone will vote for her because she's not Trump. Eh... not so much. Every last on of the 29% of registered voters who call themselves "Ds" will vote for her. Everyone on the edges. the middle and just too busy to vote? Nope. This is the exact same theory Hillary ran on and lost (oh - and Robert? Told you she was going to lose way back when). That's a recipe for disaster. Curt's 3rd party post has obvious holes as well... for instance, the last time we had a REAL3rd Party candidate, the guy who got the short end of the stick was George HW - the R in the race. Add to that almost every 3rd party is actually conservative - NOT liberal and the odds for the Rs getting screwed is higher than the Ds. Then we can go a step further to totally decimate his Democrat-sponsored post he probably got paid for just like "Robert" here... The idea is not to run 15 guys in the general. The idea is to get different candidates with different ideas and make the "viable" candidates agree to some policy changes we need to set the country back on course. Then they band together for the general (perhaps the Green candidate becomes the veep or better yet - the D candidate does. But the bottom line is we are GETTING NOWHERE with this shitty system we have now where there are virtually no differences at all between the PARTIES (if not the candidates). So far as Robert's? I already said there's no way Biden is stepping down because - for one thing - he doesn't need to. Especially if the candidate is Kamala. Pretending to be prez for a couple months before the election is not going to change anyone's mind. Biden can throw whatever influence he has left behind whoever the Ds want to run and it will have an equal (more or less) effect as stepping down. I do not think the public would look kindly on him leaving early. by Indy! on July 4, 2024 2:46 pm Almost forget... And if anyone thinks I don't like Kamala or wouldn't want her as prez (any more or less than the other two losers).... wrong. It would be a boon for me because I could reboot Li'l Kamala... by Curt_Anderson on July 4, 2024 3:40 pm I believe Biden will withdraw from the race. A friend told me today that Biden insisted he was running and that Democratic governors were totally behind his candidacy. As former sports media guys, Indy and Robert, you'll appreciate this analogy: I said it reminds me when team ownership announces they are "110% in support" of some beleaguered coach. That is usually soon followed by the coach being fired, as the team "moves on in a new direction". There is an article in The Hill which attempts to answer the question, "What happens to Biden’s campaign cash if he drops out?" It seems that it's not off limits to anyone not named Kamala. thehill.com by ROB3RT on July 4, 2024 5:16 pm Curt, yes the sports apology is correct. Or to put it another way, the financial markets don't like uncertainty. It's not great for our foreign policy, either. Nobody wants Biden to make an abrupt announcement, pulling out of the race or resigning the office, until the can assure an orderly process. Hate to keep repeating this, but the only people who want chaos are wearing red MAGA dunce caps. So Democratic leaders are all gonna keep nodding along, saying they support Biden until they have a plan in place. The article is fine, but the Supreme Court will ultimately decide who gets to spend the Biden-Harris war chest. I doubt many Democrats will feel confident about that gamble. by Donna on July 4, 2024 6:13 pm Biden thinks that if he can pull off a good interview tomorrow on George Stephanopolis, people will forget what they saw on TV last Thursday. The only problem wuth that plan is that the only people who watch George Stephanopolis are centrist Democrats, who were going to vote for Biden anyhow. Meanwhile, team Trump will run TV ads highlighting their favorite exerpts from the debate as long as Biden stays in the race, while Democratic strategists (hopefully get to) transition to a new nominee. by oldedude on July 4, 2024 8:40 pm Donna, welcome back. Your post was typically you. I only have ONE difference, otherwise you're spot on. I think the GOP will run those ads until after Armageddon. If nothing more than to show how deeply entrenched pedojoe was in the antichrist movement. By not saying anything, they are saying volumes. I hope your house is doing well for you both! Congrats and God's speed! od by ROB3RT on July 5, 2024 1:59 am That is true, Donna. One interview is not enough. He needs a vigorous response, many unscripted media appearances, interviews, town halls, campaign events. He has to prove that the debate was an anomaly. He has to prove that he can talk and make sense. He's just not doing that. And I suspect the reason is because he can't. People are trying to give him some space, but I don't think the Democratic Party leaders, donors and Congressional candidates are going to have much more patience. Either he needs to prove he can do this, or there's going to be a lot more pressure to step aside. by HatetheSwamp on July 5, 2024 3:02 am Meanwhile, team Trump will run TV ads highlighting their favorite exerpts from the debate as long as Biden stays in the race, while Democratic strategists (hopefully get to) transition to a new nominee. Donna, What America's intentionally misinformed voters don't know is that there's an extensive library of Biden brainfart excerpts GOPs can use to make the point that the debate was not a one off. Expect to see some of that. No doubt, you yourself will see many of them for the first time, your devotion to the metaphorical Rachel being what it is, baha. "Four more years, pause." View Video Go To Top

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