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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
pb's Election prediction...one month out
By HatetheSwamp
October 6, 2022 6:22 am
Category: Politics

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pb has been doing this in mid-term elections on SS since 2010, when he predicted that red wave, but underestimated its ferocity.

pb's done two preliminary 020 election posts so far. He's been predicting that the GOP will take the House but only by a moderate majority. He's been pointing out that the GOPs will have trouble the Senate, due, in part, to their weak, Trump endorsed, candidates.

Even though, conventional wisdom is that the parties' bases win in the mid-terms, the truth is that "low information voters" will, almost certainly, decide this election.

The question, then, is what the voters who don't care about issues will do at the polls this year.

Here's what pb sees as the defining reality in 022: GAS PRICES ARE RISING AGAIN.

On the day the Former Truck Driver placed his the Bible, the national average price per gallon for regular unleaded was $2.39. Today, in the last 24 hours, the price jumped 3c to $3.86...i.e., nearly a buck and a half above what it was on President Clouseau's first day...

...AND, IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RISE, fairly rapidly, between now and then.

By election day, the average price will, almost certainly, be over $4.00/gallon.

That's good news for the party out of power.

So, pb's numbers 4 1/2 weeks out?

House: 231-204 GOPs
Senate: 51-49 GOPs


FYI, this is the first time pb's predicted that the GOPs take the Senate in 022.

I'd be glad to know the numbers the rest of you foresee.

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Comments on "pb's Election prediction...one month out":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on October 6, 2022 8:01 am
    I think your analysis is about right in particular regarding Trump endorsed candidates. I'll make my predictions based on yours but subtract two two Republicans from your house and Senate guesstimates and add in two Democrats to each.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on October 6, 2022 11:14 am

    So, I'll mark you down...

    Curt

    House:229-206 GOPs
    Senate: 51-49 Dems



  3. by HatetheSwamp on October 11, 2022 2:01 pm

    Interesting.

    Fox just came out with its latest power ranking.

    For the House, it matches pb exactly: 231-204.
    foxnews.com


  4. by HatetheSwamp on October 12, 2022 5:09 am

    BTW, Fox has the GOP +11 compared to one month ago.


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