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Major Shifts Beneath the Surface in a New Trump-Harris Poll
Nate Cohn • Fri, July 26, 2024, 7:54 AM EDT
After all the political tumult of the last month, Thursday’s latest New York Times/Siena College poll is full of findings unlike any we’ve seen this cycle, with one exception: who leads the presidential race.
The poll found Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters. Other than the name of the Democratic candidate, “Trump +1” is a result that could have been from any other Times/Siena poll before President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate.
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But on question after question, there are major shifts from previous Times-Siena polls, which were all taken before Harris essentially locked up her party’s nomination for president, before the Republican convention, and before the attempted assassination of Trump. Even the 1-point Harris deficit represents a significant improvement for Democrats from Biden’s 6-point deficit in our last Times/Siena poll.
These events make it hard to know what to make of the results of recent polls, including this one. The survey is a useful marker of where the race stands now, but there’s no reason to be confident that this is where the race will stand once the dust settles.
While the overall result between Harris and Trump may look familiar, the poll is full of signs that there’s a lot of dust still in the political air.
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