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Joe Biden Favored to Beat Donald Trump in 538 Election Forecast
By Curt_Anderson
June 11, 2024 11:01 am
Category: Politics

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(Newsweek)President Joe Biden is the favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a forecast model.

Polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, said that when run through a prediction simulation, Biden won November's race 53 times out of 100, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of 100.

Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump Among America's Top Pollsters
(Newsweek)President Joe Biden has a razor thin lead over former President Donald Trump in the race to the White House, according to VoteHub's average of America's most reliable pollsters.

In March, the incumbent and the former president won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

Cited and related links:

  1. newsweek.com
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Comments on "Joe Biden Favored to Beat Donald Trump in 538 Election Forecast":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on June 11, 2024 11:19 am

    Let me start off with two words: I support Biden. I support Biden. At the behest of Joe Biden, I'm ready to choose freedom over democracy. Asufutimaehaehfutbw!

    pb's been reminding the SS gang, that the Dems have a huuuuuuuuuge advantage in ballot harvesting and ballot curing and diddling with the chain of custody of mail-in ballots.

    The best I have said for Trump is that he might just make it too big to rig.

    But, 53 out of 100? Remember Hillary. 538 had her in the high 70%s, the NYT, what? 90%+!!!!!?

  2. by Ponderer on June 11, 2024 11:22 am

    Donna speaking...

    Do you think Biden will still be leading after the GOP roll out their October Surprise about Joe showering with his daughter (my speculation), which in her diary she says was "probably inappropriate", which she hasn't denied writing? (see snopes link)





    snopes.com

  3. by Curt_Anderson on June 11, 2024 11:36 am
    Thanks a lot, Donna! You spoiled their surprise. Btw, kids have false memories. Our daughter imagined that we traveled to a city that we have never been to. She brought up in conversation as if we had all vacationed there.

    And then there is this...
    Donald Trump Suffers Quadruple Polling Blow
    (Newsweek)Former President Donald Trump has been stung by a number of polls in recent days, including those suggesting his hush money felony conviction may be harming his 2024 election chances.

    newsweek.com

  4. by HatetheSwamp on June 11, 2024 11:50 am

    Surprise?

    Y'nes need to step outside the shelter provided by Curt's Holy Trinity and po's metaphorical Rachel.

    This is precisely why you qualify as intentionally misinformed voters. You know less than common sense moderate and independent... Donna's "low information"... voters.

    Ashley Biden has been saying that she's been a sex addict since she was in elementary school. I don't know that she blames showers with daddy for it but she's been public about it for a long time.

    I'm a bit stunned that Dems are politicizing that tragedy by trying to get out ahead of it now. Trump's despicable. But, you white wokesters? Holy freakin friggin EFFINcow!


    All that said, if Joe's record as a father becomes an issue, it will be because of what becomes public in Hunter's second trial in what?, September?

    Hunter Biden is a world-class narcissistic creep! And, daddy's an enabler... or has the Holy Trinity and the metaphorical Rachel not reported that? Baha ha!

  5. by Ponderer on June 11, 2024 12:30 pm

    Donna here.

    The Dems are absolutely NOT getting out ahead of it, pb! On the contrary, they've been completely silent about it. I'm not "the Dems". Where did you get the idea that "the Dems" are getting out ahead of it?

    And the Republicans have been conspicuously silent about it, which leads me to suspect that they're going to roll it out in October. They introduced it right before the 2020 election, but the details were sketchy then, and we didn't know if Ashley actually wrote that or if it was added by O'Keefe or someone else then, which is a point I made back then. Now we know that she actually wrote all of that.

    Yassss, Curt - people -- not, just kids, sometimes have false memories. I don't think that Ashley would have falsely remembered Joe taking showers with her, though. That's a pretty huge thing, certainly much bigger than falsely remembering you've been to a city that you in fact haven't. Even if it were a false memory, it would be besides the point politically, because it's out there, and you know the old adage about putting toothpaste back in the tube. If the GOP goes with it, they'll be certain to include with it a montage of the countless times on camera where Joe is seen sniffing and playing with little girls' hair.



  6. by HatetheSwamp on June 11, 2024 12:55 pm

    "The Dems are absolutely NOT getting out ahead of it, pb! On the contrary, they've been completely silent about it."

    Just curious, because there's been chatter among some on the right about what's in Ashley Biden’s diary for some time, how did you hear about it? Not Fox. No right-wing podcast. So, where? How?


    And, FYI. I honestly can't see the GOPs exploiting Joe's vulnerability over Ashley. They've done nothing with it so far. But, if Hunter doesn't take a deal on the tax charges, evidence that will be presented against him will be humiliating for the guy who said, "My son has done nothing wrong." It's illegal. And, would probably be morally repugnant, even to a devout TrumpHater such as yourself.

  7. by Indy! on June 11, 2024 1:09 pm

    Thoughts...

    1) Curt crowing about his sitting president being up 6 points on a convicted felon... 😂

    2) Donna's theory - sounds plausible although I doubt the actual "GOP" will have anything to do with it on a first hand basis. They'll leave that to the sleazebag 9/10s of the party - the Project Veritas scumbags and others like them - Fox "News", Drudge, Megyn Crybaby... all of pb's favorite media outlets. The reason being that one could very easily backfire on the Rs since we're talking about someone who's not even in politics and - at best - the facts have a murky "confirmation" from the girl.

  8. by Indy! on June 11, 2024 1:12 pm

    3) Nobody cares about Hunter except desperate GOP folks like peebs who are looking for something - ANYTHING - they can hang on Biden that is at least equal to (hopefully greater than) the 34 felony convictions hanging around his albatross of a candidate's neck.

  9. by HatetheSwamp on June 11, 2024 1:25 pm

    I agree that no one cares about Hunter. And, I imagine you don't know the sort of evidence that will come to light if he goes on trial on the tax charges. He's a very bad man, a pure narcissist, and a hedonist.

    And, there is the truth that Joe has been his enabler all of his life.

    Who Hunter is and what he's done is substantially on daddy.

  10. by Indy! on June 11, 2024 1:50 pm

    Nobody cares, peebs. You know how many times some D or a liberal has brought up Hunter Biden in my lifetime?

    ZERO.

    Because nobody cares outside of the Fox studios and whoever is watching Fox.

  11. by HatetheSwamp on June 12, 2024 3:27 am

    I did watch The Five. Curt was wrong.

    Interestingly,... and consistently... Gutfeld, who's a GOP even more libertarian than ole pb, attacked the law Hunter was convicted of breaking as a violation of Hunter's Bill of Rights rights.

    Ironically, earlier in the day, the Doddering Old Fool argued for more laws of the type his baby boy was convicted of breaking.

    Strange bedfellows, baby!

  12. by HatetheSwamp on June 12, 2024 5:14 am

    The GUTFELD! monolog was on why the Hunter Biden law is unconstitutional.

    The GOP is the home of openness and inclusion, acceptance, diversity, tolerance and freethinking!

    Everyone's welcome!

    See link.

     View Video

  13. by Ponderer on June 12, 2024 9:50 am

    "Just curious, because there's been chatter among some on the right about what's in Ashley Biden’s diary for some time, how did you hear about it? Not Fox. No right-wing podcast. So, where? How?" - pb

    Oh, I see. You assumed that the Dems were "getting out ahead of it" because of your false assumption that I heard about it from MSNBC or some Dem news & commentary outlet. Not so. I first heard about it in the fall of 2020 when it surfaced, and you started a topic thread here a few months ago on the topic, which rekindled my interest and I've been thinking about it ever since. I didn't hear about it from Facebook either because other than an occasional post here, I'm no longer on social media.

  14. by Indy! on June 12, 2024 11:08 am

    The showers thing has been known for years. I highly doubt it's been covered by the... ahem... "liberal" "news" media. If Joe Biden gets a huge lead - that's when you can expect them to find some "reason" to talk about it 24/7.

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