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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
Trump stretches lead in Nate Silver's projection
By HatetheSwamp
October 24, 2024 1:23 pm
Category: Politics

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National Polling Starting to Look Bad for Harris: Nate Silver

With less than two weeks until election day, Vice President Kamala Harris faces troubling signs in the latest polls as her national polling average shrinks and momentum shifts toward former President Donald Trump in what statistician and pollster Nate Silver says is "not a good sign" for Harris.

The model shows a 1.2-point increase in Republican support since the previous week and a 1.7-point increase for Trump since last month.

The model finds Trump ahead in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and just barely in Pennsylvania... According to Silver, if Trump wins the state he has a 90.3 percent chance of winning the election...

(Silver's) win probability forecast favors Trump to win the Electoral College, with a 53.7 percent chance compared to Harris' 46.0 percent.


And, after that CNN Townhall debacle, last night, Kammy'll probably lose more ground.


Cited and related links:

  1. newsweek.com

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Comments on "Trump stretches lead in Nate Silver's projection ":

  1. by Indy! on October 24, 2024 2:28 pm

    I trust Nate "2016" Silver almost as much as I trust PolyMAGAt.


  2. by Donna on October 26, 2024 1:29 pm

    The polls have the race a virtual tie, but there's one statistuc that stabds out.

    From The Hill:

    "Additionally, the [new NY Times/Siena] poll found that 15 percent of voters have not fully decided for whom they will vote. Among that group, Harris had an edge with 42 percent of voters, compared to Trump’s 32 percent of voters."

    "Harris has put much of her efforts into holding on to the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If she sweeps those states, she is likely to win the Electoral College regardless of what happens in the other four battlegrounds."


    🤞

    I wonder which states Kamala has a lead with undecideds, though.

    thehill.com


  3. by HatetheSwamp on October 26, 2024 1:55 pm

    The Blue Wall states all have Dem Governors. I'm counting on hijinks and shenanigans to win the day.

    You probably saw that I'm preliminarily predicting that Cackles takes the Electoral College 287-251. That's based on the Governors winning us the Blue Wall.


  4. by Indy! on October 26, 2024 2:33 pm

    Why would the Blue governors want to help you and Trump?


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