By oldedude October 24, 2024 8:33 am Category: Conspiracy (0.0 from 0 votes) Rules of the Post Write A New Article How To Post Here Rate this article (5=best, 0=poor)

It pays to watch different news other than curt's trilogy, and Rachael's fiction.

The FBI’s preliminary 2023 data show murder declined by 13.2% across the country and violent crime dropped 5.7% compared to 2022 levels. Various news headlines have reported the FBI’s numbers unquestioningly, claiming murder is “plummeting” and violent crime “declined significantly” to pre-pandemic levels.

But these latest figures warrant skepticism, as the FBI outlined in a new report. In fact, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels, and last year’s apparent drop is less significant than it appears.

Part of the problem is how police departments report offenses to the FBI. The FBI asked, then demanded, that law enforcement agencies “transition” away from the system they used for decades to a new, more detailed but onerous one. The 2021 mandate to use NIBRS to submit crime data proved a disaster as overstretched departments, especially in large cities, failed to reach compliance and thus did not submit data.

In 2019, 89% of agencies covering 97% of the population submitted data, but by 2021, that coverage plummeted to less than 63% of departments overseeing just 65% of the population. Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City all failed to submit crime data. To increase participation, the FBI relaxed the NIBRS requirement in 2022, allowing agencies to report via the legacy system.

And the figures the agencies do report to the FBI do not match the agencies’ publicly reported figures.

Baltimore, the FBI reported 225 murders in 2023, but the city reported 262 — which means the FBI left out 37 murders. 😱

Milwaukee, the police department reported a 7% increase in robberies, but the FBI showed a 13% drop. 😱

Nashville’s own data tallied more than 6,900 aggravated assaults in 2023, but the FBI counted only 5,941, leaving almost 1,000 of those offenses “missing.” 😱

This trend is consistent across the board: While 2022’s FBI city-level figures track the police’s own data, the 2023 numbers consistently undercount offense totals. Any year-to-year comparison overstates decline.

Cited and related links:

1. washingtonexaminer.com
2. cde.ucr.cjis.gov

Comments Start Below

by HatetheSwamp on October 24, 2024 8:56 am Like our woke crowd really didn't already know it, baha. by Indy! on October 24, 2024 10:35 am MAGAts and math... snicker. 😂 by oldedude on October 24, 2024 12:52 pm Still haven't figured it out, have you?😞 by Indy! on October 24, 2024 2:29 pm Washington Examiner... a "news"paper created by a cult leader with a conservative agenda. Call me when you figure out what a legitimate source looks like. by oldedude on October 24, 2024 6:20 pm Lead- The humorous part of this is the lack of real responses about this. Which is fine. The recognition the FBI is trying to fix this is the important part. It was also in the Washinton Post, but people usually have to pay to play, and I'm not playing pedojoe's game. So High five! by Curt_Anderson on October 24, 2024 6:45 pm OD, What do you expect us to comment on? That the Washington Examiner made a claim about specific crime categories in particular cities that are supposedly at odds with each other? The Examiner gave a few examples of differing crime rates. Are we to assume that the other crimes rates match? I looked at the robbery rates in my native city, Milwaukee, as reported locally and by the feds. See links. There may be a discrepancy, but it's hard to tell for sure. One thing that is clear, is that the federal crime statistics are labeled "Expanded Property Reported By Milwaukee Police Department". So if the statistics vary, the come from a common source. cde.ucr.cjis.gov city.milwaukee.gov by oldedude on October 24, 2024 10:09 pm curt- What happened is the cities either refused or just didn't fukking care to update their software. THAT makes a difference in the crime stats. You have stood fastly that the errored crime stats were "perfect" and they were true. Nothing could be from the truth, as DOJ/FBI was concerned. That's the problem. Period. end of statement. The point is they were collecting bad numbers because the cities refused to report their true stats they were given over a year before (and more). I can remember whan this was put out. That was prior to 2020. Yes it was a PITA. I do agree with that. AND that was the standard that some jurisdictions "chose" not to use. The truth is that screwed up the system. In EIGHT years, they needed to report in the new system. I think that's enough. Podunk LA, could do it. So could "Lostinthewoods" MO, and yet others "can't"? I highly doubt it. It meant MONEY. mmm... They CHOSE not to get it. Then they bitched. fukim. It's time that if your have a mandatory report to get money, that you do it. or you don't get money. So now their whiny little bitches. Sorry. shouldacouldawoulda. wait a couple of years for money. These cities created the problem, they shouldn't be given money. by oldedude on October 24, 2024 10:15 pm So after all that. You expect freebees when you don't fulfill the requirements. Not gonna happen. Honestly. pissoff. You want to play the game, play the rules. Welcome to the bureaucracy that you so wholly support. Or if you don't like it and the gov'mnt should piss off, then don't expect anything from them. Your choice. by Curt_Anderson on October 24, 2024 10:43 pm "The point is they were collecting bad numbers because the cities refused to report their true stats they were given over a year before (and more)." ---OD OK, the cities refused to report true stats or they were sloppy in reporting the stats. As you suggest at least some cities didn't provide true stats for over a year or more. So what makes you think that last year or in any previous years cities provided more accurate stats than the most recent year? I suspect that most cities now and in the past do their best to provide the feds with reliable stats, but for various mundane, non-conspiratorial reasons the stats are not always current or updated. It's a little like polling. Final polls don't always match the election results. But if a poll indicates over time that candidate X is gaining or losing, the change up or down is probably indicative of reality even if the final poll numbers are slightly off. In other words, if the federal stats indicate crime is down, crime is probably down. by Indy! on October 25, 2024 12:27 am It’s a non-factor because they’ve been doing it the whole time. You think the staistics were more accurate 30yrs ago? Of course not. by oldedude on October 25, 2024 1:23 pm Curt- OK, the cities refused to report true stats or they were sloppy in reporting the stats. As you suggest at least some cities didn't provide true stats for over a year or more. So what makes you think that last year or in any previous years cities provided more accurate stats than the most recent year? Because of the updating the cities were forced to do, and money. They were using the old UCR system, DOJ was using the new system. When it comes down to money, all of a sudden, the cities didn't get what they applied for because DOJs stats didn't show the need for the money the cities asked for. by Indy! on October 25, 2024 2:02 pm Crime is at historic lows and it's not even that hard to figure out why... 1) Aging population (older people commit less crimes) 2) The shit people used to steal is worthless now by oldedude on October 25, 2024 3:23 pm But these latest figures warrant skepticism, as the FBI outlined in a new report. In fact, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels, and last year’s apparent drop is less significant than it appears. The DOJ disagrees with you. I think they know a fuckload more than you do about the situation. Jussayin...😒 by Indy! on October 25, 2024 7:39 pm They don't disagree with me. You're too simpleminded to understand missing a few stats is par for the course so the trend is still the same - WAY down since the 90s. by Indy! on October 25, 2024 7:42 pm Curt: It's a little like polling. Final polls don't always match the election results. But if a poll indicates over time that candidate X is gaining or losing, the change up or down is probably indicative of reality even if the final poll numbers are slightly off. Bingo. What OD can't comprehend is that his nickel and dimes worth of (allegedly) "missing" stats does not override a WHOPPING 30% drop in crime the last 30 years. He's crying about not counting a couple of pebbles when we're looking at a mountain. by oldedude on October 25, 2024 8:40 pm In 2019, 89% of agencies covering 97% of the population submitted data, but by 2021, that coverage plummeted to less than 63% of departments overseeing just 65% of the population. Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City all failed to submit crime data. Milwaukee had a 20% discrepancy in Robberies. If you actually think that's "nickle and dimes" you're sadly mistaken. You really should have read the post, and then the citations. I know that you're going to lie and argue nothing in particular forever. The facts are that for two years, YOUR STATS are just fucked up. and wrong. You can't get around that. And again, I think DOJ understands the problems with the numbers. You don't (no surprise there, because you're a mouthpiece for the swamp). And being the narcissist you are, you feel you're smarter than DOJ, when they're a fuckload smarter than you. Otherwise they wouldn't have actually admitted to the changes. They're almost as bad as you are admitting they're wrong. by Indy! on October 26, 2024 11:57 am REPUBS AND MATH - LOL!!! 30 years > 2 years. You are so far out of your league, Trumper. by oldedude on October 26, 2024 6:28 pm indy, if you have nothing interesting or substantive to say, you don't have to post. Don't you have any hobbies? by Indy! on October 26, 2024 7:43 pm Yes - my hobby is reading up on crime statistics. by oldedude on October 26, 2024 8:33 pm You're lousy at it. Let me know if you ever learn how to read them. Or if you ever learn how to read law, and the constitution. Those would be a great start. I have a third-grade book My grandkids have used it. I could recommend for you. by oldedude on October 27, 2024 3:08 am Everyone but you use (usually) the prior 5 years max. Historical (30 years) is only used in a few cases. The crime stats for DOJ are used for federal money. A lot of wire taps, and task forces from ONDCP. Major cases like your friends in the cartels, and terrorist groups. And now, a lot of human trafficking cases (some people actually consider human slavery, rape and murder a crime). And it doesn't help if you reject the real stats and use fictional stats to make a comparison. When the agency that collects the data tells you the data isn't any good, and deliberately misleading, that should tell you something. Well, maybe you wouldn't understand that.🙄 But you wouldn't know that since you're on the other side of the law. Actually, more of an Anarchist, which I also have less use for. Most of them grow out of it when they get a real job or live out of trash bins and dumpsters. A lot of failed "artists" also. by Indy! on October 27, 2024 12:08 pm Lot of typing just to say you're wrong. by oldedude on October 27, 2024 1:20 pm The issue is that you don't know why the stats were created and how they're used. NO FUCKING CLUE. So when you can actually say something that is positive, or within the scope of the question. Feel free to chime in. Otherwise, you're wasted space. Oh. Should I put that in military? That way you have something to be a whiny little bitch about. Go To Top

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