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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
ABC: Trump has gained in 538's forecast
By HatetheSwamp
October 20, 2024 8:38 am
Category: Politics

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The progressive SwampMedia likes to pretend these stories away, but...

Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. Now — just 18 days away from Election Day — our forecast gives Trump the bare advantage in the race with a 52-in-100 chance to win.

That's a significant 10 point jump for OrangeTurdBad.

Nate Silver agrees.

The betting markets are all in for Trump.

RCP no toss-up has Trump winning 312-226.

But, tell me I'm crazy. I still believe in Dem hijinks and shenanigans. Give me a little old-fashioned ballot harvesting, ballot curing and some diddling with the chain of custody of mail-in ballots! I still believe.

Cited and related links:

  1. abcnews.go.com
  2. realclearpolling.com
  3. realclearpolling.com

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Comments on "ABC: Trump has gained in 538's forecast":

  1. by meagain on October 20, 2024 10:31 am
    As the election nears, the voting intentions become tighter and have taken a definite, if slight, swing towards Trump. He has to be favoured now unless Harris can make progress in a couple of the swing states.

  2. by HatetheSwamp on October 20, 2024 10:46 am

    Slight?

    He jumped 10 points in two weeks at 538.

  3. by Indy! on October 20, 2024 10:59 am

    Plus Nate "2016" Silver says so!

  4. by Donna on October 20, 2024 11:08 am

    See the 538 predictions below about the 2022 midterm elections. They gave the Republicans a 59% probability of taking control of the Senate.

    But the predicted "Red Wave" never happened.


    projects.fivethirtyeight.com

  5. by Donna on October 20, 2024 11:13 am

    In 2022, 538 gave a 27% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House, but that was the outcome.

  6. by Indy! on October 20, 2024 11:14 am

    Obviously they are trying to follow in the footsteps of their co-conspirator Nate "2016",

  7. by HatetheSwamp on October 20, 2024 12:01 pm

    "In 2022, 538 gave a 27% chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House, but that was the outcome."

    Bull$#¡t.

    GOPs control the House.

    You gotta drop your metaphorical Rachel!!!!!

  8. by Donna on October 20, 2024 12:12 pm

    I got those numbers from the 538 link I provided, Hts.


  9. by Donna on October 20, 2024 12:17 pm

    "Bull$#¡t.

    GOPs control the House." - Hts

    Correct, and that's what I said in the post you're complaining about. Did you forget to put in your reading classes?

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