The polls have been so close for so long, forecasters and the media are overly sensitive to small changes in the polling. It's still very close. A misstep by a candidate, an unexpected event or even the weather on election day could have a huge impact on the election outcome. The candidate with the best voter turnout operation wins, not who leads in the final polls.
Of course, it's better to be leading in the polls than trailing. Being ahead encourages donors and helps with volunteer enthusiasm even if it doesn't guarantee victory.
As of Wednesday afternoon, [Nate] Silver's polling averages show that the vice president is leading Trump by 3.1 percentage points nationwide (49.1 percent to 46 percent). While Silver has predicted for several weeks that Trump has a higher chance of victory, Harris has started to make gains in a handful of battleground states, boosting her probability of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes in November.
"Another very good day of polling for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote in his latest update of the Silver Bulletin.
PolyMarket has Harris up 51-47 over Trump.
Harris wins 63 times out of 100, Trump wins 37 times out of 100 in 538's simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
