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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
The presidential polls might not matter as much as the number of door-knockers.
By Curt_Anderson
September 1, 2024 12:12 pm
Category: Politics

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Harris has small leads in most battleground states and overall nationally. These leads are within the margin of error. There are not many prospective voters who are still "gettable" and undecided. It is likely to be a matter of which candidate is more successful at getting their voters to vote. The Harris campaign controls a more traditional get-out-the-vote effort. Trump has outsourced his voter outreach efforts to outside groups.

(NY Times)Former President Donald J. Trump’s team has enlisted some of these groups to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors across the country — saving the campaign significant money in the process.

But the Trump campaign is making a serious gamble in doing so, betting that these outside groups, which they do not directly control, can carry out their marching orders without accountability.

(CNN)“(The) ability to work with outside groups on field work alleviates the need to have the same size staff footprint as in previous cycles, allowing us to retain a greater share of resources for advertising and paid voter contact programs than in past cycles,” a senior Trump adviser told CNN.

(USA Today)Of the advantages Harris’ campaign touts is a strong war chest of $540 million and an early investment in staff and offices.

“We are in a position to play hard and aggressively across all the battlegrounds. By contrast, the Trump campaign did not do that,” said Kanninen, battleground states director of the Harris-Walz campaign.

Harris has more than 312 offices and 2,000 staffers in battleground states, according to the campaign, and made a $150 million television ad buy in August. Harris' campaign says it has $370 million in TV and digital ads reserved after Labor Day.

The Trump campaign says it has “hundreds” of paid staffers in the battleground states and nearly 400 GOP offices funded by the former president’s operation, but it didn’t specify how many of those are new and how many existed previous to the campaign.

Trump campaign political director James Blair posted on X that there are 21,000 trained “Trump Force 47 Captains,” in the battlegrounds, referencing the campaign’s volunteer program.


Cited and related links:

  1. nytimes.com
  2. cnn.com
  3. usatoday.com

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Comments on "The presidential polls might not matter as much as the number of door-knockers.":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on September 1, 2024 12:35 pm

    I think you're right. GOPs in Pennsylvania have been working for months at what they call "chasing the vote," i.e., a legal and ethical take on the ballot harvesting and ballot curing and diddling with the chain of custody of mail-in ballots that the Dems were so good at back in 020.


  2. by Curt_Anderson on September 1, 2024 1:49 pm
    👍 As a Harris supporter I am glad to hear Pennsylvania Republicans are occupying their time chasing phantoms.


  3. by HatetheSwamp on September 1, 2024 1:51 pm

    As I've noted earlier, GOPs claim to have registered more than 200,000 more new voters than Dems in Pennsylvania since 020.

    We'll see.


  4. by HatetheSwamp on September 1, 2024 2:01 pm

    BTW, Joe won Pennsylvania by .7% in 020. He was up in the polls by 4.7.

    A difference of 4%.

    Kammy's currently up 1.2. If MAGAs only lie as much as they did four years ago, Trump's up nearly 3%. Oy, as po'd say, freakin friggin EFFINvey!
    en.m.wikipedia.org
    projects.fivethirtyeight.com
    projects.fivethirtyeight.com


  5. by Curt_Anderson on September 1, 2024 2:08 pm
    Republicans added 19,127 new voter registrations to their rolls last month, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Department of State tells Axios.

    Meanwhile, Democrats added 17,495.

    Zoom out: Republicans have registered more new voters across the Keystone State so far this year (94,603), compared to Democrats' 87,325 as of last week, per the state.

    But Dems still hold a commanding lead for total registered voters statewide with 3.9 million compared to Republicans' 3.5 million as of last week.
    axios.com


  6. by HatetheSwamp on September 1, 2024 2:29 pm

    Study the history of Pennsylvania voting. Even with the ballot harvesting and ballot curing and the diddling with the chain of custody of mail-in ballots, GOPs out-vote their registration numbers. I think that many union members who are registered Dem vote as GOP, especially in western Pennsylvania.

    And, just a word on the ground here. Pennsylvania GOPs seem to be beside themselves with confidence.


  7. by Indy! on September 1, 2024 3:29 pm

    200K... 7K... almost the same.

    Republicans and math. 😂


  8. by Indy! on September 1, 2024 3:33 pm
    Sidebar: I knocked on doors for Obama in '08. It's a thankless job and you kinda feel like it's a waste of time because for every 100 doors - you get maybe 2 or 3 people who haven't made up their minds (or - more likely - don't care).


  9. by Curt_Anderson on September 1, 2024 3:39 pm
    Indy,
    Obama carried Florida in 2008, so your efforts were not entirely in vain.


  10. by Indy! on September 1, 2024 3:50 pm

    I wasn't going to standby and wait for the GOP to nominate the next Bush family member to follow the retarded guy. More important than knocking on the doors (however) - was the fact I also talked 5 or 6 other people into volunteering as well - including a couple folks in NC where Obama also won a red state.

    Kamala has a good shot at Florida imho. The Ds need to get out and there are two big issues for the libs on our ballot - reproductive rights and recreational marijuana. Trump made a big mistake publicly falling on the wrong side of Amendment 4. More than anything that will hurt him here imho. The GOP women are also pro-choice (more than not) and the weed initiative should bring out a lot of young people who are not going to vote for Trump.


  11. by HatetheSwamp on September 1, 2024 3:56 pm

    Trump's up 4.7% and considering that MAGAs lie about supporting Trump by about 4%, as po'd say, a freakin friggin EFFINlandslide, in Florida, I'm tellin ya.

    projects.fivethirtyeight.com


  12. by Indy! on September 1, 2024 3:58 pm

    My prediction: The Ds won't even need PA when all is said and done - but they'll win it anyway. There won't be any "landslide" imho because every R out there (including OD and PB) will be voting for Trump. The problem is the Ds are going to overwhelm you with numbers anyway.

    As your favorite candidate says: "We're not going back"


  13. by Curt_Anderson on September 1, 2024 7:05 pm
    HtS,
    Those Republicans who are "chasing the vote," were just dealt a setback:

    Court stops Pennsylvania counties from throwing out mail-in votes over incorrect envelope dates
    A state court Friday halted enforcement of a requirement that voters include accurate, handwritten dates on envelopes used to submit mail-in ballots, a ruling likely to keep several thousand Pennsylvania votes from being thrown out in the November election.


    whyy.org


  14. by Indy! on September 1, 2024 7:22 pm

    PA is now BLUE.


  15. by HatetheSwamp on September 2, 2024 4:08 am

    Yeah, Curt. I saw that. Note. It was a state court. And, bahaha, you're linking to the Philly PBS/NPR outlet. How very Holy Trinity of you.

    Pennsylvania courts are a tool of the Dems in rigging elections. It's a huuuuuuuuuge advantage that the Dems have over Trump. No doubt.

    The truth is that Pennsylvania courts may win the election for Kammy.


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