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President selectors, pages, etc.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election According To 538?
By Curt_Anderson
August 24, 2024 11:25 am
Category: President

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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

In 538's simulations of the 2024 presidential election:

  • Harris wins 58 times out of 100
  • Trump wins 41 times out of 100.
  • There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

    This not saying that Harris will get 58% of the popular vote, just that her chances are considerably better than Trump's.

    Cited and related links:

    1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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    Comments on "Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election According To 538?":

    1. by Indy! on August 24, 2024 12:28 pm

      538 went down the tubes when they gave Trump an 18% chance of winning about a week before the 2016 election.

    2. by HatetheSwamp on August 24, 2024 3:02 pm

      Polymarket still has Trump favored.

      polymarket.com

    3. by Indy! on August 24, 2024 4:32 pm

      Bet Fox does too. But this time even the Fox hosts aren't buying it. 😂

    4. by meagain on August 25, 2024 9:05 am
      A new poll today shows Harris with a 7-point lead.

      I am sceptical of these polls since they all seem to be too small samples with large error margins but they are all trending upwards for Harris.

    5. by Indy! on August 25, 2024 10:55 am

      Donna is the board numbers expert. She can probably tell us how many people need to be polled for the results to ring true. I know it is a much smaller number than most people assume.

    6. by Ponderer on August 25, 2024 1:20 pm

      "I am sceptical of these polls since they all seem to be too small samples with large error margins but they are all trending upwards for Harris." -Hate


      They are general poll sample sizes. And you didn't say anything like that when the polls showed Trump was ahead.

    7. by Indy! on August 25, 2024 1:35 pm

      That's the main thing - we're in the same bubble with the polls. Considering what has happened and how the polls have generally followed the changes on the ground (Biden's bad debate performance, Biden stepping down, the DNC convention, etc...) I would feel comfortable saying the polls are giving us a pretty accurate representation of how people are feeling.

      The big problem for Trump is what CAN he do to turn things around? He can't reinvent himself after 3 campaigns and 4 years in office. He's basically waiting for a HUGE stumble on Kamala's part to trip herself up.

    8. by Curt_Anderson on August 26, 2024 10:43 am
      Harris's chances per 538 improved today to 59 and Trump dropped to 40. Those are 538's calculations of the candidates chances not their poll numbers. In reality, the two candidate are very close in the polls with Harris having slight advantage nationally and in swing states according to polling aggregates.

      Consider this:
      Coin flips don't truly have a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails
      Researchers who flipped coins 350,757 times have confirmed that the chance of landing the coin the same way up as it started is around 51 per cent

      Flipped coins have only two variables. In a political campaign there are a lot variables that can impact election results including unforced errors by the candidates and inclement weather on election day. Trump is down two points or so in the polls, but he could get lucky and toss heads more often than Harris.
      newscientist.com

    9. by Donna on August 26, 2024 10:56 am

      "Donna is the board numbers expert. She can probably tell us how many people need to be polled for the results to ring true. I know it is a much smaller number than most people assume." - Indy!

      Thanks Indy! I'm not a polling expert, but logic says that the larger the sample size, the more reliable the results. I doubt that there's a specific sample threshold where the results go from 'not reliable' to 'reliable'.


    10. by Curt_Anderson on August 26, 2024 11:05 am
      Donna,
      I used to do A/B test mailings to prospective customers for a company of which I was marketing director. There are complicated equations to calculate the margin of error. One thing I do remember is that once you get up to around a 1000, the margin of error doesn't appreciably diminish as you poll more people. Furthermore, even the entire country has 50 times the population of the average state, a national poll doesn't need 50 times more people responding to the poll.

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