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Nate Silver Predicts Kamala Harris Will Keep Rising in Polls Post DNC
By Curt_Anderson
August 22, 2024 10:40 am
Category: Politics

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I know at least one person here who likes to keep up with Silver's latest predictions.

Nate Silver, the statistician and founder of election analysis site FiveThirtyEight, has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will continue to rise in the polls after the Democratic National Convention.

In an episode of the podcast Risky Business, which Silver hosts alongside writer Maria Konnikova, titled "Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs and the DNC" Silver said, "Our model is expecting that she will continue to rise in the polls after the DNC. That's what we call a convention bump or a convention bounce."

"The day after the convention, you've had four days of free television advertising in every network, you tend to see polls rise."

Silver said that "We would expect her to get about maybe four or five point lead in national polls, and be ahead in the large majority of swing state polls."


Cited and related links:

  1. newsweek.com

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Comments on "Nate Silver Predicts Kamala Harris Will Keep Rising in Polls Post DNC":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on August 22, 2024 11:01 am

    Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy.


    Yup. Polymarket gives Kammy a 67% chance of winning the popular vote. As soon as the."dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool was couped, pb said that Kammy will win the popular vote with huuuuuuuuuge majorities in California and New England but Trump's looking good for the Electoral College. pb's usually right about stuff like this.

    If Kammy is going to improve her purple state chances, she going to have to come up with a JFK or bubba Clinton moderate Dem speech tonight. I'm not holding my breath.


  2. by Curt_Anderson on August 22, 2024 11:32 am
    I don't think Harris's speech tonight will be or should be markedly moderate, left or right. It should be patriotic and uplifting rather than overtly political. She should discuss her qualifications (that will also be covered in the introductory video) and the rest should be extolling the virtues of mom, apple pie and America. In other words, she should promote the things that most of us agree on. Plus she should get under Trump's thin skin and make him the butt of jokes.


  3. by HatetheSwamp on August 22, 2024 12:15 pm

    What she needs is an "Ask not what your country can do for you..." moment. She still definitely has a chance to win. But the way the RFKJ campaign is framing things, avoiding... "the RISK of a Harris presidency..." characterizes the point of view of most of us who are moderate.

    She needs to do something to alter that.


  4. by Indy! on August 22, 2024 12:37 pm

    "A chance" to win. Somebody (still) needs to turn off the Fox. 😂


  5. by Curt_Anderson on August 22, 2024 4:30 pm
    Trump might have received a post-convention bump, but Biden stepped on that by quitting the race the weekend right after Trump’s nomination. It’s just like it was intentionally timed to hurt Trump.


  6. by Indy! on August 22, 2024 4:32 pm

    The weird history from this election will probably be Trump not getting a bump from his convention and - SHOCKINGLY - not even getting a bump from (allegedly) getting shot.


  7. by Curt_Anderson on August 22, 2024 4:43 pm
    Good reminder about Trump not getting the usual “attempted assassination bump”. That’s an example of adding insult to injury.


  8. by Indy! on August 22, 2024 5:07 pm

    The only people that cared were the 32% who would never leave him. Have you noticed... even OD and PB don't care. 😂


  9. by Ponderer on August 23, 2024 8:35 am


    I can't wait for this debate. If Trump even shows up. Which I doubt he will. He'll avoid it because Harris didn't show up at his imaginary debate. It's why he came up with the imaginary debate in the first place. To give him an excuse to avoid the real one with Kamala.

    Kamala Harris and her campaign are absolutely Donald Trump's worst nightmare. And there are like 74 days left yet until the election.


    His decent into a madness far greater than any madness he's already presented is going to be absolutely delicious I tell you.


  10. by HatetheSwamp on August 23, 2024 8:45 am

    Yet, after Stevie Wonder and Kammy's Churchillian oration, Trump's still up at Polymarket by 3 points. Amazing!


  11. by Donna on August 23, 2024 9:29 am

    I predict that Trump isn't going to debate her.


  12. by HatetheSwamp on August 23, 2024 10:09 am

    Oy freakin friggin EFFINvey, po. I can't even imagine where that delusion comes from.

    He's committed to three debates. She’s the one floating like a butterfly.


  13. by Indy! on August 23, 2024 10:34 am

    She's committed to the original debate and open to more afterwards.*



    *If Trump can locate his balls.


  14. by Donna on August 23, 2024 10:39 am

    Trump is such a fucking COWARD that he won't debate Kamala unless he has a full arena auduence full of his cult members cheering him on. What a LOSER.




  15. by HatetheSwamp on August 23, 2024 11:25 am

    How bout a non Curt's Holy Trinity and po's metaphorical Rachel link...


  16. by Indy! on August 23, 2024 1:28 pm

    It would be the perfect year to return the debates to the League of Women Voters since this is the year we're electing the first woman president. 😌

    The only way I see Trump showing up for the debate is if he realizes it might be his only chance to swing the tide back his way. That would be funny... him trying to save his campaign and only making things worse because Kamala slam dunks him on national TV.


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