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Overnight, during the Dem EFFINConvention, betting markets shift toward Trump by 2 points. pb's theory
By HatetheSwamp
August 22, 2024 4:04 am
Category: Politics

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The local guy who took over Rush's time slot on Philly talk radio alerted ole pb to Polymarket, which, in itself in fascinating. It shows betting odds on just about anything. Want the odds on whether or not Kammy'll say the word "inflation" tonight? (13% btw)

Understand, these odds can change in the moment. But, at this moment...

24 hours ago, after day two of the DNC, Trump jumped, by 6 points, to suddenly being the favorite in November. In the last 24 hours, Trump jumped up by 2 more points: 53-46%... DURING THE EFFINDNC. Oy, as po'd say, freakin friggin EFFINvey!!!!!

Here's pb's theory on why. Call it the SOTU phenomenon.

When Joe gave his SOTU speech earlier this year,... shouting woke and progressive clichés in his GET OFF MY LAWN voice for two hours, po and Curt were orgasmic. But, in the weeks after the speech, Joe didn't get the customary bump in approval.

Why? Simple.

When Dems say the things that make wokes and progressives happy, they scare the bejeebers out of moderate and independent common sense voters.

A good rule of thumb? If po and Curt love you, America doesn't.

From my viewing of the DNC... and I picked this up from Monday on, Kammy and krew are still preaching to the choir,... still reaching out to the extremists on the fringe.

If po's happy, ain't no one else happy.

So, based on the betting markets, the DNC has produced a huuuuuuuuuge anti bounce. When it began, Kammy has a slight lead. Today, Trump's lead in so large we're almost beyond the point that pundits would call it a toss-up with Trump leading.

I'm certain that po and Curt are in heaven watching the speeches. The rest of America?, not so much... h€ck, not at all.

Bahahahahahahahahahaha haha baha ha.


Cited and related links:

  1. polymarket.com

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Comments on "Overnight, during the Dem EFFINConvention, betting markets shift toward Trump by 2 points. pb's theory ":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on August 22, 2024 7:49 am
    I suspect the betting market is more influenced by news of RFK jr. endorsing Trump. But I also believe their suppositions are mistaken. He won’t help Trump get elected.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on August 22, 2024 8:10 am

    I actually think, as tight as things are, the little difference RFKJ makes will be a big difference.

    When the "dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool was couped, RFKJ's polls about halved. Most of his remaining support, most likely, will be interested in Trump, especially if RFKJ makes a strong statement of support for Trump... and if he campaigns for Trump...

    ... if the RFKJ thing happens.

    Still, pb thinks it is telling that Kammy hasn't raised her level of support from the Convention. All the heavy hitters have come and gone.

    I figured she'd rise through the convention, even to Labor Day, before the bubble burst.


  3. by Ponderer on August 22, 2024 8:12 am

    "The local guy who took over Rush's time slot on Philly talk radio [...]" -Hate


    Yeah that's as far as I needed to read.


  4. by Indy! on August 22, 2024 1:04 pm

    We've already established that Polymarket is some sort of Kock Bros fake website created (most likely) in a sad attempt to save Trump's tanking campaign with fake numbers. But either way - that is not how odds work. Betting is not based on who will actually win - it's based on how the House can make money. So when the Ds pull ahead in the polls - who's BETTING numbers go up? Trump's. Why? Because the House wants to shift more of the bets over to the loser.


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