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Ryan Girdusky, the populist Nate Silver... total election nerd... on the Kammy surge
By HatetheSwamp
August 11, 2024 4:14 am
Category: Politics

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This guy is informed.

At one point, he talks about Hispanic precincts in Reading and Lancaster, Pennsylvania... my neck of the woods. He's an absolute nerd... and, too much of a nerd to try to please on political side or t'other.

For some reason, GOPs like to interview him but he's a populist, not a GOP.

Some of you care about raw, boring fact... not propaganda from either side. Lots of data here, but not boring.

And, Girdusky addresses, briefly, the fact that MAGAs lie to pollsters... which pb's been saying will matter in 024.

Anyway, view it, if you are interested.

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Comments on "Ryan Girdusky, the populist Nate Silver... total election nerd... on the Kammy surge":

  1. by oldedude on August 11, 2024 5:21 am
    This guy is interesting. I didn't take the time to actually look at the "polls" which I still think is too early. But all the "leads by "point something" is not a lead. It's a tie. Especially at this stage. You have to look at the "margin of error" which many folks don't. So a three-point margin, may be well within the margin of error because they only polled 2,000 people in a "national" poll.

    Lead- yup, the guy's a geek. And there is not "heart" in numbers. If the numbers are raw and correct. It IS what people make of them. Not what they really are. These are the stats I like. Regardless of the numbers. Just say. "kammy is up by .2 here, or trumpster's up by .5 here" So in these, they're in a dead heat. Lying about it doesn't make it so.


    The other thing is when tampon tim (a piece of stuffing that coddles the pussys) became MN gov, 50,000 folks moved to WI. That tells me a lot. It's like CO getting more liberal. The decisions being made there are just stupid. Although I don't think penis had a party for 10/7. And penis' husband didn't open the windows to "smell the changes" during riots. At least he wouldn't say that in public to have it used against them later on.

  2. by Curt_Anderson on August 11, 2024 6:49 am
    Girdusky recited numerous small numbers preceded by decimal points. That didn’t impress me. He demonstrated his bias when he said Walz is a “far left lunatic”. Walz was repeatedly re-elected in a red district and in a swing state. On top of that, vp candidates are not that consequential: just ask JD Vance. Girdusky thinks Harris hit her ceiling. I think Harris will get more of the erstwhile RFK Jr. supporters and undecideds. What about Trump and his ceiling? Where does he have room to grow? Is there anybody who doesn’t have an opinion of him already?

  3. by Curt_Anderson on August 11, 2024 6:49 am
    Girdusky recited numerous small numbers preceded by decimal points. That didn’t impress me. He demonstrated his bias when he said Walz is a “far left lunatic”. Walz was repeatedly re-elected in a red district and in a swing state. On top of that, vp candidates are not that consequential: just ask JD Vance. Girdusky thinks Harris hit her ceiling. I think Harris will get more of the erstwhile RFK Jr. supporters and undecideds. What about Trump and his ceiling? Where does he have room to grow? Is there anybody who doesn’t have an opinion of him already?

  4. by oldedude on August 11, 2024 7:02 am
    curt didn’t impress me. He demonstrated his bias when he rides on the rails of the other good little germans, and does only what he is told to do. He never veers from the party line regardless of how anyone on his side is proven as a “far left lunatic”. There is nothing like that in curt's world. Having a dinner party for 10/7 is right down curt's isle. Supporting the murder of 1,400 civilians is okay because if he doesn't, the party's gestapo will "visit" him. It's good the "first lady" opened the windows of the gov's mansion to "smell the change happening" when the city was being burned down and destroying hard working families' businesses. It's okay if immigrants murder and rape children, but if a conservative wants to protect themselves, that's a horrible "incident." He's says he's a libertarian, yet every time we mention the government illegally violates a conservative's rights, "that's okay. If there's no "due process," that's ok also. The constitution "is just a suggestion" after all.

  5. by Donna on August 11, 2024 7:47 am

    Trump topped out a long time ago. Polling stats indicate that Kamala/Walz are scarfing up almost all of the undecideds. They're going to sweep the contested states. They might even take Florida.



  6. by oldedude on August 11, 2024 7:58 am
    I'm not willing to say either way. Politics are politics. Will the moderate vote kill kammy and tampon Tim? maybe. You can defend it how you want, but someone that has already violated the moderate voters wishes (CRT/ Gender Id without telling parents) may take votes from them. It could be in "not voting" or in thinking trumpster isn't trying to force us to believe the schools are only legit if "big brother" runs them. And on the conservative side, every time there's a suicide or a rape in a school with gender ID politics, it's all over the conservative networks. The one about Fairfax county is really bad for those schools, and is often repeated as a counter to GIP. And it's working. If you want to sway parents, talk about how their kids will be "unsafe" somewhere. That will turn them on a dime.

  7. by Donna on August 11, 2024 8:06 am

    Absolutely! to your last sentence. That's why Tim Walz includes in his campaign speeches words of outrage that children are being massacred at schools because Republicans are allowing regular citizens to carry around weapons of war.


  8. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2024 9:25 am

    Girdusky recited numerous small numbers preceded by decimal points. That didn’t impress me.

    Curt,

    Living between Reading and Lancaster, Pennsylvania, what impressed me is his insight on local politics here.

    Of course, he didn't impress you. But, some of us seek truth.

  9. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2024 9:29 am

    Donna,

    "Trump topped out a long time ago."

    Do you really THINK... not hope... that there won't be ebbs and flow in the campaign between now and November?

    You're in po... subjectivity is truth... territory.

  10. by oldedude on August 11, 2024 9:36 am
    Absolutely! to your last sentence. That's why Tim Walz includes in his campaign speeches words of outrage that children are being massacred at schools because Republicans are allowing regular citizens to carry around weapons of war.

    You mean the "weapons that I carried into war" You forgot the last of that to hide his LIES.

    He might have a leg to stand on IF HE WAS ACTUALLY IN WAR. Because I know plenty of folks that lost theirs in battle!

    so pretty much piss on him.

  11. by Curt_Anderson on August 11, 2024 9:53 am
    ”Of course, he didn't impress you. But, some of us seek truth.” —-HtS

    You may seek the truth, but you are not good at recognizing the truth. Girdusky is opining and predicting. Time will tell if he is proven correct and Harris drops significantly in the polls and loses the election. I predict she improves in the polls and wins the election. But we shall see.

  12. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2024 10:07 am

    It was his knowledge of fact that impressed me.

    And, his highly qualified belief that Trump will win didn't tickle your Good German fancy.

    But, the guy knows his stuff... about Pennsylvania voting trends, anyway.

  13. by oldedude on August 11, 2024 10:19 am
    curt- Yes he does, but different than the pundits (that I'm sure we've both seen and listened to), the whole process is not about what they say, but about how an individual gleans the information.

    First, I don't listen to Gutfeld much, and when I do, he reminds me that he's not a "news" reporter. And whatever "news" show I'm watching, I understand that EVERY "NEWS" agency, has their own "view" (so to speak) of the news. Even the "view," which some people actually use as "news." You notice the conservatives here don't use them to needle the left about bullshit news. It's not worth our time. We actually (maybe wrongly) "assume" you know better.

    I took his news on the stats. Okay. Then he got in to being a pundit. There's a definite turn on the information highway there. That's where I can agree with his results. Or not. Just like a professor in college. Do I question the Chemistry professor about the reduction of acids? My guess, not a good idea. What about political science? Maybe, especially in the upper-level classes. And that's what you were "supposed" to do in my classes. You already knew about the Constitution, the difference between a Republic and a Democracy, and how our government works (that was in the first two years). Now you're expected to use them in real world law.

    Honestly, if you want to just criticize. Fine. I think you "assume" we're the same as you (et.al), and the little you know about these things.


  14. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2024 10:35 am

    None of the SS white progressive elitist wannabes would touch GUTFELD with a ten foot pole.

    So, briefly: what he does is survey the news, usually 12 - 24 hours ago, to figure out what would be easiest for people on the right to laugh at. Lots of Kristi Noem, Chris Christi... and lots of Joy Reid, literal Rachel and Morning Joe, and Brian Stelter and, course, the "dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool... and lots and lots of Kammy.

    GUTFELD is a Trump guy as much as anyone on Fox but you have to know that he realizes that four or eight years of Kammy would be the best thing for his career!... if America survives, baha.

  15. by Indy! on August 11, 2024 10:43 am

    Quick look at the list of the guys articles and it's obvious he's MAGA.

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