Hamas may be setting to strike ‘independent’ of Iran, which may be debatable. Even if they're "independent," they're still coordinated at the highest levels. Israeli Intel may be seeing another 10/7 attack in process. Israel warns both entities of a disproportionate response if civilians are targeted. Meaning we'll fight you in a military war but if you pull another 10/7, watch out.
Background:
Missile attack on Druze children in Israel. 12 killed.
Israel kills a high level Hamas commander. 1 Killed
Hamas declares they will get vengeance (الانتقام) on Israel for the killing.
Iran declares vengeance (الانتقام) on Israel for killing Hamas leader in Tehran.
Cost in human lives? Military: Iran has great missiles, crap aircraft and pilots.
Lots of ground troops that Israel will have to use their artillery, armor,, and aircraft to slow down. = bloodbath of military.
Civilians: could be very low. Could be in the multi- thousands. I'm not betting yet. Hamas doesn't have an Airforce, so there's that. And if attacked in a 10/7 style, my guess is the Israelis will be ready. Hamas knows what will happen. They have the ability to get their people out of the region. Israel may evacuate the Kibbutzim.
If civilians are targeted, I don't think ANY Israeli can be stopped in a massive retaliation attack. As we've talked about, Hamas likes their Political clout more than their citizens. There's much more they can do with dead people. The exploitation of stupid westerners has been done since 1948, it's not going to stop now.
Beirut, Lebanon, August 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Mustafa Jamalddine)
Israeli officials increasingly believe it will be Hezbollah, rather than Iran, that will be first to launch a major attack on Israel in the coming days, according to media reports on Wednesday, while Tehran was reported to be possibly reconsidering its threatened large-scale onslaught.
Citing two sources familiar with intelligence on the matter, CNN reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly set to act against Israel “independent” of an expected Iranian response to the recent killings of the Lebanese terror group’s top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
One of the sources said Hezbollah was moving at a faster clip than Iran in readying an attack, which it looks set to launch in the coming days. According to the US news network, multiple officials said Iran seems to still be hashing out its retaliation plans, with one US military official quoted as saying Tehran has already made some — but not all — of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.
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