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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
Harris leads in new 538 polling report
By Curt_Anderson
August 2, 2024 8:35 am
Category: Politics

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Kamala Harris is at 45% in national polls. Trump trails at 43.5%. I predict she will get a nice and permanent bump from announcing her running mate choice and another from the convention.

I also predict the DNC convention will beat the RNC’s weirdo convention in TV viewership.

Cited and related links:

  1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Comments on "Harris leads in new 538 polling report":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on August 2, 2024 8:46 am

    Holy freakin friggin EFFINcow! It's like pb is able to read newspapers two weeks into the future!

  2. by Curt_Anderson on August 2, 2024 11:43 am
    (ABC News)538's averages are slightly better for Harris than the ones you'll find from other public aggregators. There are a few reasons for this. The most important is that our average only considers polls that began interviewing voters after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential election and endorsed Harris to be the Democratic nominee. (It is long-standing 538 policy not to include horse-race polls with candidates that aren't actually running in our models.) Because those earlier polls were asking about a then-hypothetical matchup, voters may have been thinking about the candidates in theoretical ways that are no longer relevant to today's very real contest. Indeed, by our estimate, Harris has performed about 3 points better nationally in polls conducted after Biden's withdrawal than before it.

    Another reason our averages are better for Harris is that 538 adjusts polls that were conducted among registered voters (marked as "RV" on our polls page) or all adults ("A") toward the results of likely voter ("LV") polls. We make this adjustment because we know for a fact that not all adults or even all registered voters will vote in the election, and the types of people who vote differ from nonvoters in predictable ways.
    abcnews.go.com

  3. by HatetheSwamp on August 2, 2024 12:12 pm

    Curt,

    Ole pb predicted right after Joe was couped that Kammy will win the popular vote. However,...

    Magas are increasingly disruptive with polling. In 020, 538 underestimated the Trump vote by a whopping 3.9%. I don't know about you, but my sense is that MAGA lying will be even more outrageous than it was four years ago.

    The truth is that if Kammy is ahead by 4.0 at 538, she's probably really trailing. That's just a truth we white dudes for Kamala have to deal with.

  4. by Ponderer on August 2, 2024 12:23 pm

    You're quite right, Curt. There're gobs of reasons to feel confident that, from a variety of polls, Harris is gaining a lot of ground on Trump and has even surpassed him.

  5. by Curt_Anderson on August 2, 2024 12:42 pm
    "I don't know about you, but my sense is that MAGA lying will be even more outrageous than it was four years ago." --HtS

    I would never disagree with that sentiment.

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