In the last election Biden won 306 electoral college votes and Trump had 232.
Kamala Harris can win the election if she holds most of the states Biden won. This even if she loses Georgia (16 votes) and Arizona (11 votes) and a state(s) equaling no more than nine electoral votes.
For Trump to to get to the magic number of 270 he has to win every state he won in 2020 plus 38 more electoral votes from at least three state; namely Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Nevada (6) and Pennsylvania (20).
These are the numbers from the latest FOX News polls. Harris is either leading, tied or easily within the margin of error for these states.
Wisconsin: Trump 50, Harris 49
Michigan: Trump 49, Harris 49
Pennsylvania: Trump 49, Harris 49
Minnesota: Harris 52, Trump 46
Wisconsin: Trump 46, Harris 46, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 1
Michigan: Trump 45, Harris 43, Kennedy 7, Stein 1, West 1
Pennsylvania: Trump 43, Harris 45, Kennedy 7, Stein 1, West 1
Minnesota: Harris 47, Trump 41, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 1