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RCP: Trump up 0.2 nationally. Can Kammy win without cheating?
By HatetheSwamp
November 3, 2024 8:36 am
Category: Crime

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Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy. But,...

In 016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% but won the Electoral College big time.

I can't see Cackles Mckneepads doing better in the popular vote than Hillary did.

I can't wait to start four years of Kammy in the Oval Office. But, could someone give me a viable explanation for how it can happen... honestly?

Cited and related links:

  1. realclearpolitics.com

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Comments on "RCP: Trump up 0.2 nationally. Can Kammy win without cheating?":

  1. by Indy! on November 3, 2024 9:06 am

    Maybe if we have a new vote for 2024 instead of looking back to what happened 8 years ago?

  2. by Curt_Anderson on November 3, 2024 9:48 am
    HtS,
    So your point is that Trump has a 2/10ths of a percent lead in the polls, so how could he lose?

  3. by meagain on November 3, 2024 10:14 am
    As of one hour ago, Harris had a 1% lead according to 538. 48.9 t0 47.9.

    So, whoever loses blame Stein.

  4. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 10:34 am

    No, Curt. My point is that Hillary won the popular vote by more than 2% and was crushed in the Electoral College.

  5. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 10:36 am

    meagain,

    As of this moment, 538 has Trump as the favorite to win the election.


    projects.fivethirtyeight.com

  6. by Curt_Anderson on November 3, 2024 10:43 am
    HTS,
    As I've said before, pollsters are NOT reporting a totally randomized view of the electorate. The pollsters know when they get it wrong after the elections. Based on past election results they attempt to "correct" by counting more or less of a certain demographic. What we don't know is if the pollsters this time have over-adjusted, under-adjusted or have it just right.

  7. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 11:08 am

    Exactly, Curt.

    And, in 016 pollsters undercounted Trump's vote by 2.7%. In 020, they did worse. They undercounted Trump's vote by 3.9%. What facts are you acquainted with... facts, man... that lead you to conclude they'll do better in 024?

    They were confident in 020, that they'd figured out the Trump vote. They were wrong. Very wrong. Freakin friggin EFFINwrong! They did much, much worse.

    Trump's campaign... and, right-wing media... are behaving as if they KNOW Trump's going to win... but you know that. You are our Fox News expert!

    The history of the numbers is against the Dingbat.

  8. by Indy! on November 3, 2024 1:34 pm

    You are head over HEELS in love with your favorite orange and brown skidmark, peebs! 😍 Bet your cheeks get all flushed and you can't stand up when you type up these posts.

  9. by Donna on November 3, 2024 3:15 pm

    Late deciders are breaking bigly for Harris. Many articles about it (see link).

    I think it's probably safe to assume that most of these late deciders are people who don't follow politics. So now, when they, for the first time watch the candidates' speeches and compare the them - one, a message of unity and unbridled optimism for America, and the other, a message of unhinged darkness and vengefulness - I can imagine most of them thinking 'Holy crap! I can't vote for that guy - he's a trainwreck!'


    google.com

  10. by Donna on November 4, 2024 1:43 pm

    Latest polls at link.

    I'm predicting a Harris win.

  11. by Ponderer on November 4, 2024 2:17 pm

    Btw, I'll be volunteering as a poll observer on election day from 3-7PM at a Catholic church a few miles from home.


  12. by Donna on November 4, 2024 2:18 pm

    Oops! Mine ^

  13. by HatetheSwamp on November 4, 2024 2:24 pm

    I'm still predicting Kammy 270-268. Still.

    I wasn't able to find particulars of the NYT poll [if you can, please link] but I heard several whom I regard as trustworthy in the right-wing media... INCLUDING THE GAY GUY CURT NEVER HEARD OF, who ain't MAGA...

    ... questioning the balance of Dems and GOPs in the latest polls. Apparently, Dems are seriously overcounted. One well connected member of the right-wing media quoted the person who runs polling for the NYT as complaining that white GOPs just hang up when they're called by pollsters...

    ...that, of course, is the old, old story of the silent Trump voter... and, truth!, RCP undercounted Trump's vote by 2.7 in 020. 538 undercounted Trump by 3.9. It appears that Trump voters are just as silent as ever.

    Nevertheless. I'm picking Kammy. That's my story,... and, I'm stickin to it.

    270-268! Skin of her teeth.

  14. by meagain on November 4, 2024 3:18 pm
    I made a post earlier that does not seem to have got through.
    I think that Trump will win based on the narrow lead that Harris has which is not enough to overcome the Electoral College distortion.

    Though, it seems that it might be down to Pennsylvania and that could change the result if Harris does take it.

  15. by Indy! on November 4, 2024 8:53 pm

    It appears that Trump voters are just as silent as ever.

    And who can blame them? If I were voting for Señor Shitstain I would keep my mouth shut too.

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