The way it looks now, RFK Jr. doesn't qualify to participate in any presidential debates.
By Curt_Anderson March 23, 2024 8:40 pm Category: Politics (0.0 from 0 votes)
Rules of the Post
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. currently sits at 11.2% in the RCP average of national polls. The presidential debate commission requires poll numbers of at least 15% in their rule (iii).
RFK Jr. is close to appearing on 16 states' presidential ballots. That falls short of the (ii) requirement to have a mathematical chance. Even if he were to sweep all the states in which he has ballot access, that's not enough electoral votes.
Kennedy is also way behind Biden and Trump in campaign fundraising, so I don't expect him to improve on his poll numbers. I still say RFK Jr. appeals to two kinds of voters: those who mistakenly think he is the reincarnation of his father and JFK; and antivaxxers. Biden and DNC will be working to dissuade any voters with misconceptions about Kennedy.
Of course, all of this is a mute point if Trump and Biden don't agree to debate.
Btw, Kennedy and Trump have something in common: both have Tulsi Gabbard on their short lists of potential running mates.
Federal Election Commission (“FEC”) regulations require a debate sponsor to make its candidate selection decisions on the basis of “pre-established, objective” criteria. On October 1, 2019, the CPD adopted its 2020 Nonpartisan Candidate Selection Criteria. Under the 2020 Criteria, to receive an invitation to debate, a candidate must: (i) be Constitutionally eligible to hold the office of President of the United States; (ii) appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College; (iii) have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate, as determined by five national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. The polls to be relied upon will be selected based on the quality of the methodology employed, the reputation of the polling organizations and the frequency of the polling conducted. The CPD will identify the selected polling organizations well in advance of the time the criteria are applied.
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