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How badly election deniers cost the GOP, in 9 stats
By Donna
November 14, 2022 12:17 pm
Category: How-to

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Back in May, we wrote a piece running down the biggest races in which a GOP election denier, if elected, could exercise significant control over the 2024 election.

It named nine candidates for governor and other statewide offices. As of today, it looks like each and every one of them has lost.

The latest additions are two secretary of state candidates in Arizona and Nevada. And vote counts released Sunday night in the Arizona governorís race suggest the only one of the nine who hasnít lost so far, Kari Lake, is unlikely to break the trend.

- The Washington Postís tracker lists 46 competitive races featuring an election denier. The deniers have lost 31 of those races and won just seven, with eight races outstanding.

- Only two of those seven wins came in an electorate that voted for President Biden in 2020, and neither came in a district that was bluer than the country as a whole. That reinforces that the election-denier creed was a stone-cold loser in swing areas.

- The only election deniers to win governorís races so far were incumbents. Election deniers appear to have lost all 12 races in which they were either challengers or running for an open seat, including in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and potentially Arizona. If you include primaries in Georgia, Idaho and Nebraska, non-incumbent election deniers look like they will have gone 0 for 15. (Some have listed Nevada Gov.-elect Joe Lombardo as an election denier, but he was relatively noncommittal compared with others.)

- The most prominent election deniers running for secretary of state were nearly swept on Tuesday, and they lost in every swing state. They lost in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada (after also losing in Georgia in the primaries).

- The picture wasnít much better for election deniers outside swing states. The America First Secretary of State Coalition, the most prominent group supporting election deniers to oversee state elections, lists 17 endorsements on its website. If Lake loses (the group also endorsed a couple of gubernatorial candidates), then 16 will have lost in the 2022 election cycle.

- Perhaps the most prominent election deniers in competitive Senate races were Arizonaís Blake Masters (who released an ad saying Donald Trump won the 2020 election), Nevadaís Adam Laxalt (who spearheaded Trumpís 2020 election challenges in his state) and New Hampshireís Don Bolduc (who said the election was stolen before reversing course after the primary). Each not only lost, but also underperformed the other Republicans on the ticket. Republicans won the governorís races in both Nevada and New Hampshire, for example. And in Arizona, Mastersís current 6.3-point deficit is six points worse than Trumpís performance in 2020 and worse than every other statewide Republican.

- Both Arizona and Michigan featured hard-line election deniers running for every statewide office. They either have already lost, or currently trail, in all seven statewide races in those states. (The one with the best shot to win: Arizona attorney general candidate Abraham Hamadeh, who currently trails by 0.4 percent.)

- The only two gubernatorial seats to go from red to blue so far came by virtue of hard-line election deniers: Geoff Diehl in Massachusetts and Dan Cox in Maryland. (Lake could soon be No. 3.) The fact that Republicans would lose these states isnít altogether surprising. But in the primaries, these candidates effectively pushed aside a popular governor (in Massachusetts, Diehlís candidacy made the race much less viable for Charlie Baker) and a popular governorís preferred successor (defeating Kelly Schulz in Maryland, whom Larry Hogan endorsed). That handed these seats to Democrats on a platter.

- Some of the biggest underperformances in the House also came thanks to Trump-backed election deniers. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) leads narrowly in a district Trump carried by more than eight points in 2020. John Gibbs lost by 13 points in a Michigan district Trump lost by eight. Joe Kent lost by two points in a Washington district Trump carried by four. And perhaps the biggest loser, Ohioís J.R. Majewski, trailed by 14 in a district Trump carried by three ó a gap of 17 points. (These numbers may change slightly.)


Cited and related links:

  1. washingtonpost.com
  2. washingtonpost.com

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Comments on "How badly election deniers cost the GOP, in 9 stats":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on November 14, 2022 12:36 pm
    Donna,
    John Ralston, who is often called the "dean of Nevada political reporters" made a point of saying that Governor-elect Joe Lombardo is not one of the conspiracy nuts and election deniers.

    I am sure the Republican Lombardo is conservative and maybe even MAGA-lite, but he is not a Kari Lake-type kook. He is the chief of my son's police department. My son says good things about him.

    Trump's big announcement is likely to make the case that contrary to all evidence the MAGA movement is somehow successful. Or maybe he'll make the case that MAGA is the victim of "the Swamp". Either way, it will appeal to stupid people.


  2. by Donna on November 14, 2022 12:42 pm

    From the WaPost piece:

    The only election deniers to win governorís races so far were incumbents. Election deniers appear to have lost all 12 races in which they were either challengers or running for an open seat, including in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and potentially Arizona. If you include primaries in Georgia, Idaho and Nebraska, non-incumbent election deniers look like they will have gone 0 for 15. (Some have listed Nevada Gov.-elect Joe Lombardo as an election denier, but he was relatively noncommittal compared with others.)


  3. by Curt_Anderson on November 14, 2022 12:46 pm
    I know, I read that in your article. I agree with you on that about Lombardo.


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