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So what odds do you give me that I'll be arrested/detained on Saturday?
By Ponderer
October 16, 2025 5:09 pm
Category: History
(0.0 from 0 votes)
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As I have mentioned, I will be attending a No Kings Rally and March with some friends this Saturday. I'm wearing a black t-shirt and a black cap, both with big, plain, block white letters saying ANTIFA across them like the SECURITY shirts and caps you see people at events wearing. My sign I will be carrying says

BEING AN
AMERICAN
MEANS BEING
ANTIFA!



Okay. Now, let's take a little look at this recent Executive Order. It's not long...


DESIGNATING ANTIFA AS A
DOMESTIC TERRORIST ORGANIZATION


Section 1. Antifa as a Terrorist Threat. Antifa is a militarist, anarchist enterprise that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the United States Government, law enforcement authorities, and our system of law. It uses illegal means to organize and execute a campaign of violence and terrorism nationwide to accomplish these goals. This campaign involves coordinated efforts to obstruct enforcement of Federal laws through armed standoffs with law enforcement, organized riots, violent assaults on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other law enforcement officers, and routine doxing of and other threats against political figures and activists. Antifa recruits, trains, and radicalizes young Americans to engage in this violence and suppression of political activity, then employs elaborate means and mechanisms to shield the identities of its operatives, conceal its funding sources and operations in an effort to frustrate law enforcement, and recruit additional members. Individuals associated with and acting on behalf of Antifa further coordinate with other organizations and entities for the purpose of spreading, fomenting, and advancing political violence and suppressing lawful political speech. This organized effort designed to achieve policy objectives by coercion and intimidation is domestic terrorism.

Sec. 2. Designation as a Domestic Terrorist Organization. Because of the aforementioned pattern of political violence designed to suppress lawful political activity and obstruct the rule of law, I hereby designate Antifa as a “domestic terrorist organization.” All relevant executive departments and agencies shall utilize all applicable authorities to investigate, disrupt, and dismantle any and all illegal operations — especially those involving terrorist actions — conducted by Antifa or any person claiming to act on behalf of Antifa, or for which Antifa or any person claiming to act on behalf of Antifa provided material support, including necessary investigatory and prosecutorial actions against those who fund such operations.

Sec. 3. General Provisions. (a) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

(b) This order shall be published in the Federal Register.

DONALD J. TRUMP

THE WHITE HOUSE,

September 22, 2025.


Okay. So given this being in the Federal Register and all, what are the odds, do each of you think, that I will get arrested or detained this Saturday?

I will engage in no violence whatsoever, sitting on my folding stool, and shall flee at any indication of any such possibly occurring, not that any will at any of these things.

I realize that I may be a possible canary in a coal mine here, but if I get carted off for nothing more than my sign and my shirt and hat, I am willing to be such a canary if it helps prove to millions who refuse to believe that this is the unamerican, fascist point that we have come to under this Regime.




Kind of a thing, but with ANTIFA. I even used that same font. They both came out looking quite professional.

Cited and related links:

  1. whitehouse.gov

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Comments on "So what odds do you give me that I'll be arrested/detained on Saturday?":

  1. by Ponderer on October 16, 2025 5:16 pm

    I'm actually getting a little nervous about this. But you know what? I just realized something. If a protest isn't at least a little bit risky, what kind of a protest is it?

  2. by Indy! on October 16, 2025 7:31 pm

    Exactly, Pondy - embrace the horror. Seriously, my guess is the only cities that will be enforcing that order with be...

    1) Cities with cops sitting around on their asses with nothing better to do, and...

    B) Cities in red meat country where no antifada activity has ever been reported.

    Wait... did some just say "antifada"...?


    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... la-la-la
    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... ha-ha-ha

    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... la-la-la
    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... (clap,) (clap), (clap)


  3. by oldedude on October 16, 2025 7:37 pm
    po- IF you say they are truthfully, 0%.

  4. by Indy! on October 16, 2025 7:40 pm

    What's up, Odie? How's it hangin? 🙂

  5. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 6:49 am

    So olde dude gives me zero odds of being apprehended, based on what I could decipher from that sentence fragment.

    I'm somewhere around 30:1. There hasn't been much activity from Trump's Gestapo here except for right at federal facilities. If they branch out into the streets to start taking people away from different parts of the city, it will mark something of an increase in their Gestaponess.

  6. by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2025 7:32 am

    po,

    It's all about you, eh!!!!!?

    When Antifa arrests happen, it'll be at the top of the mountain. It'll be RICO Act type crimes at issue.

    So long as you commit no crime tomorrow, you'll just have a walk in the park.

  7. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 7:38 am
    po- so you're saying you have a 3000% chance of being arrested, and then said why you wouldn't be.

  8. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 7:53 am

    No. I'm saying that I have a one in thirty chance of being arrested, which means that I think that it's most likely that I won't be. I have no idea where you got that 3000% number from. And pedophile's bitch is a moron.

  9. by Donna on October 17, 2025 8:36 am

    30:1 means longshot.


  10. by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2025 8:43 am

    po,

    Don't pick any pockets, destroy property or sexually harass anybody. Then, relax. Soak up the mutual hate.

  11. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 8:55 am

    pedophile's bitch, did you always admire fascism like you do now?

    Oh I know I know... that's one of those questions.

    But the thing is, you actually do admire Trump's fascism. We've seen it and seen it. You spend so much time defending it and supporting it and voting for it. There's no other logical explanation than you simply like and admire his governing style. Which is purely fascistic. Why would any American side with his fascism if they didn't approve of it?

    So it's a fair question... Do you cling to anti-democratic fascism as much as you always did, or do you simply like and admire Trump's form of undemocratic, unconstitutional fascism?

    If every time you passed by a neighbor's house you saw him beating his wife through a window and after some time you didn't see that happening through the widow any longer, going up to and knocking on the door and asking if he had stopped beating his wife would be a perfectly fair question.

    Just as every question that I have ever asked you that you catagorize as a have you stopped beating your wife question has been.

  12. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 9:13 am
    30:1 means longshot.

    The fraction 30/1 as a percentage is 3000%. This is calculated by multiplying the fraction by 100. Here are the steps:
    Divide 30 by 1 to get 30.
    Multiply 30 by 100 to convert it to a percentage, resulting in 3000%.
    IA

  13. by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2025 9:27 am

    "But the thing is, you actually do admire Trump's fascism. We've seen it and seen it. You spend so much time defending it and supporting it..."

    Please link to examples.

  14. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 9:28 am

    I am saying that there is a one in thirty chance that I will be arrested/detained at the No Kings Rally tomorrow.

    That means that I believe I have a 3.33% chance of being arrested/detained at the No Kings Rally tomorrow.

    "30:1 means a longshot.

    This is of course quite true. But something having a 3000% chance of happening is quite a long way away from being a longshot. And in this instance, "3000%" is an absurdly irrelevant and meaningless figure.

  15. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 9:30 am
    I cited. If you have 30 chances out of 1, that's a 3000% chance.

    If you have a 1 in 30 chance, that's pretty small.

    Notice I didn't laugh about it or anything else. It's an easy thing.

    And I would agree that your 1:30 is even still over estimated, but still pretty small.

  16. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 9:42 am

    olde dude, if there is a 1:2 chance of something happening, that's a 50% Chance of it happening, right? If there is a 1:4 chance of it happening, that means there is a 25% chance of it happening. If there is a 1:10 chance of something happening, there is a 10% chance of it happening. And if there is a 1:30 chance of something happening, that means that there is a 3.33% chance of it happening.

    There can only be at most a 100% chance of something happening. That means that it will absolutely happen. that's a 1:1 chance of it happening.

    A 3000% chance of something happening is an absurdly meaningless figure.

  17. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 10:18 am
    That's why I said you got it reversed. And that's what the citation said also. If you have 1 chance, it will happen 30 times. that's what you said. It wasn't an argument, it was a correction is all. Again, I understood what you were saying. ONE CHANCE IN 30= 1:30.

    My belief that we agree on is that it's a very small chance given the history of the no kings marches. Probability is low from the history of the protests, Potential is low because of the usual folks that attend. If you would go into the night (which I haven't heard of), the potential for arrest goes up because of the moroons that show up at night to instigate. I see this as a first amendment constitutional right. I haven't seen or heard of anyone being arrested at any of these. Have fun and enjoy the sun and the day out voicing your beliefs!

  18. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 11:19 am

    I never had anything reversed. You reversed it somehow.

    All I ever said was "30:1" and "one in thirty". 30:1 means thirty to one, or a one in thirty chance. Your 1:30 figure is non sequitur to anything. Just as your 3000% chance was.

  19. by Indy! on October 17, 2025 11:35 am

    MAGAts and math... snicker.

  20. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 12:13 pm
    po- I'm somewhere around 30:1.

    The fraction 30/1 as a percentage is 3000%. This is calculated by multiplying the fraction by 100. Here are the steps:
    Divide 30 by 1 to get 30.
    Multiply 30 by 100 to convert it to a percentage, resulting in 3000%.
    ck12.org
    fractioncalculators.com
    fractioncalculators.com
    mathbig.com

  21. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 5:34 pm

    "The fraction 30/1 as a percentage is 3000%." -olde dude

    And neither of those have anything to do with anything that I have been saying.


    30/1 is not the same thing as 30:1

  22. by Indy! on October 17, 2025 6:37 pm

    I think the odds are long you get arrested unless your group is super small and the local cops are having a bad day.

  23. by oldedude on October 17, 2025 7:04 pm
    po- that how you figure out advantages. Sorry, I learned that in sixth grade.
    And your MASSIVELY confusing betting on horses (where you WANT it to be on the losing side for the other bets) and you being arrested.

    Just to reintegrate something I learned in third grade. You read math like you do written word. This is a division problem. Are you with me so far... Your bottom number is the total amount of those putting into the pot (your horse betting just to show). So if you have 30:1 odds, for everyone that didn't bet on that horse, you get $30. So you can make quite a bit of money.

    Using the same logic. You have a total of 30 chances to get arrested. So for every 30 people there, you're chances are 1, that makes your chance what you wanted to say. It's ~3.8% or something like that. I personally don't think it's that high, but that's where betting comes in. I don't think you're going to be stoopid. I don't think you'll get arrested. I wouldn't, especially since they"re starting to charge your antifada butties under the terrorist laws.

  24. by Indy! on October 17, 2025 7:31 pm

    WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT???!! Did someone just say antifada?


    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... la-la-la
    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... ha-ha-ha

    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... la-la-la
    Antifada, Antifada, Antifada... (clap,) (clap), (clap)






  25. by Ponderer on October 17, 2025 10:05 pm

    Ole!

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