Another sports analogy. This time to discuss the flaws of 538's election forecast.
By Curt_Anderson November 2, 2024 3:56 pm Category: Sports (0.0 from 0 votes)
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In a recent NBA game, the Portland Trailblazers were fouled and sent to the free throw line twelve times. The Los Angeles Clippers went to the line 18 times. You might conclude that the Clippers would sink more free throws.
This reminds me of 538's election simulations in which the candidates are said to have X number of chances of winning based on all the possible permutations of the state polls. As of this moment, 538 says Trump has 50 chances and Harris has 49 chances of being elected.
IMHO, 538 is ignoring too many variables not covered by polls. For example, their projection doesn't take into account get-out-the-vote operations. It ignores the impact of third parties or the fury of women scorned. 538 proved their system leaves a lot to desired when they gave Hillary Clinton about 90 chances out of 100 of winning the election.
For the record, the Blazers and Clippers both sank ten free throws in that game.
Even less reliable than 538 is Polymarket.
(Fortune)The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected president in early November.
But analysts at two crypto research firms have found evidence of rampant wash trading on Polymarket, even as its odds have been shared widely across social media and mainstream media outlets. Donald Trump currently has a [58.5%] chance of winning, according to the platform.
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