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Fact Check selectors, pages, etc.
Dude that nailed 10 out of the last 10 elections says Kamala has it in the bag
By Indy!
September 16, 2024 8:55 pm
Category: Fact Check

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More bad news for the fat orange guy...

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Comments on "Dude that nailed 10 out of the last 10 elections says Kamala has it in the bag":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on September 16, 2024 9:23 pm
    Indy,
    I have a never fail system too. The sketchier the pollsters that HtS is quick to report, the better I know Kamala is doing. When he starts posting "forecasts" by Nate Silver or PolyMarket betting odds, I know she is doing great. But even better, when HtS adds his own spin and calculations to boost Trump's numbers based on a purported undercounting of his voter support, Kamala has it in the bag.

  2. by Curt_Anderson on September 16, 2024 9:40 pm
    Check out this prognosticator's video! Donald Trump calls @Tim_Walz “the future Vice President”

     View Video

  3. by Ponderer on September 17, 2024 8:00 am





    A Landslide I'm tellin' ya...





  4. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 8:33 am

    Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy.

    Here's hopin!

  5. by Donna on September 17, 2024 8:35 am

    New post-debate polling has Kamala +3 in PA.


  6. by Donna on September 17, 2024 8:36 am

    Hts, and I support Laura Loomer!

  7. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 8:39 am

    Which poll, Donna? Is it against your religion to document facts you assert?

  8. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 8:43 am

    Ahhhhhhhhhhh. Did you see that a more recent poll has Trump up 2? And that the RCP average still has Trump leading?
    realclearpolling.com

  9. by Ponderer on September 17, 2024 8:48 am

    Let me start off with three words. Hate is a fuckingliar, Hate is a fuckingliar, Hate is a fuckingliar.

  10. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 8:52 am

    "Ahhhhhhhhhhh. Did you see that a more recent poll has Trump up 2? And that the RCP average still has Trump leading?"

    po,

    Where are the lies? Hmmmm?

  11. by Ponderer on September 17, 2024 8:55 am

    Why no we haven't, Bill! Please present us with a link to it...!

  12. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 8:55 am

    huh

  13. by Ponderer on September 17, 2024 8:56 am

    "Where are the lies?" -Hate


    "I support Kamala Harris." -Hate

    It's afucking lie every time you post it, Bill.

  14. by Indy! on September 17, 2024 10:37 am
    Curt's video is funny. It looks like the one time Trump wanted to catch himself for saying the wrong thing but he was a (bad) hair (job) too late.

  15. by Curt_Anderson on September 17, 2024 12:45 pm
    Regarding my comment #1 about my system, now that PolyMarket has Harris up over Trump 50 to 48, and 538 has Harris up 61 to 39 HtS will be forced to find more obscure and discredited polls and prognosticators that look good for Trump.

    Maybe there is a self-declared psychic who is a Trumper that he can cite.
    polymarket.com
    projects.fivethirtyeight.com

  16. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 1:08 pm

    Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy.

    Far as I know, Nate Silver still has Trump favored comfortably. Actually, I'd just checked right before your post. That Polymarket number readjusts several times a day. The 50-48 thing is as good as Kammy's done. But, let's all keep a good thought.

  17. by Donna on September 17, 2024 1:13 pm

    Wow, I didn't know that Silver's essentially calling for a Harris landslide now. That was the quickest 180 turn I've ever seen a political prognosticator make. Maybe that's why Hts has been extra touchy today.

    IMO the political landscape is too volatile now to set odds, as Silver's 180 degree flip-flop illustrates. I'm sure that it generates lots of hits though.

  18. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 1:41 pm

    Donna,

    Silver's not saying that Kammy's leading. What gives you the idea that he is?

  19. by Donna on September 17, 2024 1:43 pm

    538 has Harris up 61 to 38. You didn't see that?


  20. by Donna on September 17, 2024 1:45 pm
    From 538:

    Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

    538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

    Harris wins 61 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.

    Trump wins 39 times out of 100.

  21. by Donna on September 17, 2024 1:46 pm

    I said 61 to 38. Actually it's 61 to 39.

  22. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 1:49 pm

    "538 has Harris up 61 to 38. You didn't see that?"

    Nate Silver is no longer at 538.

  23. by Indy! on September 17, 2024 1:51 pm

    Nate "2016" Silver needs a big surprise win to help cover his comically epic 2016 miscue. That's why he's trying to play contrarian.

  24. by Donna on September 17, 2024 1:54 pm

    I didn't know that Silver was no longer at 538.

  25. by HatetheSwamp on September 17, 2024 1:54 pm

    Everyone was wrong in 016 but Silver was less over the top than anyone else.

    And, he nailed 012 when few got that right.

  26. by Indy! on September 17, 2024 2:06 pm

    No - everyone was not wrong. I predicted a Hillary loss on this board approximately 2 years before the election - AND - I also suggested it probably would happen as early as 2006 when she was gearing up to replace Bush 43, but Obama knocked her out.

    Another person - late to the game - who predicted Hillary MIGHT lose in 2016? Michael Moore. Silver had Hillary at something like 80% chance 2 days before the election. He's a stat guy who doesn't understand politics at all.

  27. by HatetheSwamp on September 18, 2024 12:51 am

    Donna,

    ESPN bought 538 years ago. ABC runs it now. Silver left it last year. Interestingly, Silver took the forecasting model with him. 538's current forecasting model has nothing to do with Nate Silver.

    As of yesterday, as you noted, 538 is predicting that the Dingbat will win. Silver has the Electoral College a toss-up.
    en.m.wikipedia.org
    x.com

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