I previously opined here that the poll numbers don't matter as much as...
By Curt_Anderson September 10, 2024 12:38 pm Category: Politics (0.0 from 0 votes)
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voter turnout. One predictor of voter turnout is voter enthusiasm. I still believe that.
Harris Voters’ Enthusiasm Surges Past Trump’s In Major Polling Turnaround—Here’s Why That Matters
(Forbes)Excitement among Harris voters now outpaces excitement among Trump voters, according to an Aug. 25-28 USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters that found 68% of Harris supporters are “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 60% of Trump voters.
An Aug. 1-20 Gallup survey also found the share of Democratic voters and voters who lean Democratic who say they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about the election now outpaces enthusiasm among Republican voters and voters who lean Republican, 78% to 64%.
“The party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win,” Gallup wrote in April. “This is likely because partisan enthusiasm at that point in the election cycle is closely tied to their candidates’ position in the pre-election polls—the better their party’s candidate is doing, the more enthusiastic they feel about voting.”
More at link.
HtS believes that lying Trump supporters, falsely claim that they will vote for Harris. It's more likely that news media and poll adverse MAGA cultists would simply refuse to answer the pollsters.
Non-lying Trump supporters that pollsters questioned are about ten percent less likely to be very enthusiastic than Harris supporters. That matters. If Kamala Harris can favorably impress the 28% of voters identified by the NY Time/Sienna poll who want to more about her, she can boost her voter turnout.
Harris has a higher ceiling than Trump, she also has a lower floor. There are not many people who don't know Trump's act. I don't think he will lose or gain many converts. She will be selling herself as if in a job interview tonight. Trump will be doing his best to denigrate her, rather than selling himself.
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Comments on "I previously opined here that the poll numbers don't matter as much as...":
voter turnout. One predictor of voter turnout is voter enthusiasm. I still believe that.
