By Curt_Anderson September 9, 2024 1:13 pm Category: Education (0.0 from 0 votes) Rules of the Post Write A New Article How To Post Here Rate this article (5=best, 0=poor)

No, it does not. At least not necessarily so. If Joe Shmoe notices that Trump or some other candidate did better in an election than the polls indicated, the pollsters did too.

Pollsters are expected by the public to tell the future. Pollsters only can do that by looking into a review mirror. The pollsters themselves reject their prognosticator reputation and go to pains to remind us that polls are a snapshot in time. Regardless, polls are used to take the temperature of the electorate.

(Pew)All good polling relies on statistical adjustment called “weighting,” which makes sure that the survey sample aligns with the broader population on key characteristics. Historically, public opinion researchers have adjusted their data using a core set of demographic variables to correct imbalances between the survey sample and the population.

But there is a growing realization among survey researchers that weighting a poll on just a few variables like age, race and gender is insufficient for getting accurate results. Some groups of people – such as older adults and college graduates – are more likely to take surveys, which can lead to errors that are too sizable for a simple three- or four-variable adjustment to work well.

Cited and related links:

1. pewresearch.org

Comments Start Below

by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 3:54 pm It's my understanding that many MAGAs despise your dysfunctional and corrupt DC Swamp culture and, for a variety of reasons, don't reveal to pollsters that they plan to vote for Trump. Polls underestimated Trump's vote in 016 and by much more in 020... 3.9% at 538... Whether you woke like it or not, that's an undeniable fact. Look it up if you doubt... ... and, here's the thing: MAGAs are much more pi$$€d at the Swamp since the abuse you wokesters have heaped on them since J6. It's only my guess, but I suspect that that are lying to pollsters more since 020, much more. If polls were off by 3.9% four years ago, don't be surprised if they're off by 5-6% this time around. But, we'll see. by Indy! on September 9, 2024 4:36 pm I think they're lying too, peebs. There's no way in hell this many still people support Trump after J6. My theory is they are pumping up the numbers on purpose so the disappointment to the man who let them down 4 years ago when he loses a second time is that much greater. It's a good plan and I fully support you guys doing that to Pharoah Fatso. by oldedude on September 9, 2024 9:06 pm I think they're lying also. Except they're not telling the truth about whom they're voting for (because they don't trust the government or the media. The conservatives know this. the dims are, well, too "dim" to understand the concept.. by Indy! on September 10, 2024 11:28 am You think the progressives trust the media? We were onto them long before you guys caught on. by meagain on September 10, 2024 11:37 am Your comment about trusting media, indy, reminds me. The USA ranks 55th. in world rankings of media freedom. There are reasons. I had thought of starting something about it but I don't want to appear to be piling on. A lot of the negatives would be related to the internet, I think. by HatetheSwamp on September 10, 2024 11:44 am Indy. The truth is that, for whatever reason, the SwampPollsters overestimated the size of Trump's popular vote deficit in both 020 and 016. There's no reason to suspect that it won’t happen again in 024. by Curt_Anderson on September 10, 2024 11:59 am I suspect some Republican women are lying to pollsters. I forgot which never-Trump Republican woman said it, it might have been Olivia Troye, but she said she was sure there are Republican women who are not telling their husbands that they intend to vote for Harris. She said of her own acquaintances they don't like Trump or his abortion positions but don't want to get into an argument with their MAGA husbands. by HatetheSwamp on September 10, 2024 12:12 pm Curt, As I very noted in the past several times, your deranged TrumpHate is distinctly hopeful. Good for you. May the Force be with you. by Indy! on September 10, 2024 12:31 pm Curt - My mom does that all the time. Go To Top

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