Since 010, pb has been predicting midterm congressional election results on SS and has been extremely accurate. By the time his final prediction has gone on the books, I believe, pb's always been within 3 in the House and within 1 in the Senate.
Lots going on as far as trends are concerned, few good for Dems. Joe Biden is the most unpopular President in history at this point in his term...and his numbers are plummeting.
As far as the Bubba Clinton Doctrine is concerned: "It's the economy, stupid," conditions should be increasingly ugly for Dems. Inflation remains astronomically high and should remain high. Gas prices continue to set records and the President offers no solution other than to blame.
In addition, Nancy Pelosi has been extremely effective at keeping Dems in line, voting for the Doddering Old Fart's increasingly unpopular agenda. This makes purple district Dems vulnerable at election time. Purple district Dems can be nailed for always voting with hapless President Clouseau.
The recent Texas House race had a GOP win by nearly 8 points in a district Cook has at +5 Dem. Beating typical results by 13, as po'd say, effin points!!!!!!? That result is stunning!
One other factor in the House?, GOPs were bragging a year ago about doing well in recruiting top notch House candidates. Nearly all are winning their primaries.
In the Senate?, in a year trending GOP, Republicans have several very weak candidates in purple states, thanks to OrangeMan's tampering. Dems have better chances there.
So, here are pb's predictions as of the middle of June, before many primaries are settled.
50/50. No net change. pb says that it's more likely that Dems pick up a seat than GOPs do.
238 GOP/197 Dem. Considering that Mayra Flores just beat the Cook average by 13 points, if anything, the GOPs may do better, perhaps considerably better. 245/190 is certainly possible. 250/185 is a remote possibility.
Even today, mid June, before the primaries are settled, pb is calling the House for the GOPs. There is zero chance that the Dems hold the House.
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