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pb's Election prediction...one week out

By HatetheSwamp
October 31, 2022 5:47 am
Category: Politics

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This has been a baa aaa aaa aaaaaaad week for Dems.

pb's brain works in numbers. He loves polls time. pb's checking new polls and 538 and RCP several times a day these days.

A month and a half ago, 538 gave the Dems a 66% chance of winning the Senate. pb checked yesterday. 538 gave Dems a 51% chance.

Currently, 538 gives GOPs an 81% chance to take the House. It's most likely House result is GOPs end up with 230-235 seats but here's the thing. 538 normally seriously overestimates Dem prospects. For example, in 020, 538 projected 239 Dem seats...17 HIGHER than the actual 222 they won.

On RCP, the big trend in the last week is the crumbling of Dem support. RCP now has even the Washington Senate race as a toss up. The number of safe Dem House seats is tumbling, now down to 174.

On the RCP generic ballot. In 020, RCP had Dems plus 6.8. The GOPs picked up 15 seats. Currently, RCP has GOPs plus 2.9, a difference of 9.7 in the GOPs favor compared to two years ago.

Clearly, late breaking voters are moving to the GOP.

So, bottom line (with the proviso that Dems don't get away with the customary cheating):

Senate: 51-49 GOP
House: 238-197 GOP

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