As is obvious from the Alito opinion that has been leaked, if Roe is overturned, abortion will not be outlawed.
If Roe is outlawed, legislatures, elected by citizens, will regulate abortion.
In my opinion, it is the fact that the people, not a Court, might define access to abortion is that has Blue MAGA progressives poopin their pants because they know that the people disagree with them and, in practice, agree with pro lifers, not the pro choice crowd.
Here in Pennsylvania, the 022 Primary election is on May 17. On the very day that the Alito opinion was leaked, candidates in both parties began to stake out their position on abortion.
For the Dems, both the Senate and gubernatorial nominations are, essentially, settled. The man leading in the polls, in both cases, has a huge lead.
On the day the opinion leaked, both men came out strongly in favor of keeping abortion legal. While they have not been specific, their language suggests that they favor access to abortion to the moment of birth.
On the GOP side, there are about a half dozen serious candidates for the GOP place on the fall ballot for both Senate and governor. Many of them have already staked out their position on abortion. From what I can tell, a few are as absolutist in being pro life as the Dems are in being pro choice. But, not most.
The GOPs tend to favor limiting abortion to protect the life of the mother, some include exceptions for rape and incest. Bottom line: there's more care, more nuance among GOPs than there is for the Dems.
So, when people vote, what happens?
First, most voters don't make decisions based on a candidate's position on abortion.
As much as Pocahontas and Kammy want people to storm the polls to vote out pro life GOPs,...ain't happening.
Second, among the what?, 10-15 percent of voters who vote on abortion, the standard, absolutist position of the Dems, favoring the sucking out of a baby's brain in mommy's 39th week of pregnancy?, few voters groove on that. Very few. Very, very few.
If the Court follows through on the Alito opinion, either the federal legislature or state legislatures will regulate abortion and the extreme views of nearly all Dems won't be popular.
I've made the point that the GOP has become the party of openness and inclusion. And, it is.
But, on abortion? Noop.
On abortion, Dems are wacko pro choice and GOPs are pro life...in it's many shades. And, most voters will be far more comfortable with the nuanced sanity of the GOP than the extremism of the Dems.
GOP ads featuring the rage of Pocahontas, bahahahahahahahahahaha, will fill the airways and GOPs will, undoubtedly, win on abortion.
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